To: Anthony Anic who wrote (7819 ) 3/24/1999 8:08:00 PM From: Jenne Respond to of 41369
AMERICA ONLINE INC. (AOL) 115 -6. It appears that this leading online services provider has run into a rough patch on its way to the sky as for the second consecutive day, shares of AOL are off by a large amount. Given that this issue has the potential for achieving daily price gains (losses) of double-digit proportions, it is not too alarming to see the stock retreat on some profit taking. However, the price retreat comes at a time when the market is looking for leadership, and given the incredible price gains this stock has made during both good and bad times, it certainly does not help the market tone to see AOL roll-over, along with other high flying tech issues. Partly accelerating the price decline today is a downgrade on the stock from Brown Brothers Harriman. While the firm is still bullish on the stock for the long-term, it reduced its short-term investment view from "buy" to "unchanged" based on valuation as the stock had surpassed its price target of $110. As incredible as this may sound, AOL currently trades at 348 times projected 1999 earnings of $0.33 a share and 230 times projected 2000 earnings of $0.50. Still, given that AOL is a leading Internet stock, multiples and earnings are of no consequence in this new day-trading led market, which solely focuses on top line growth and momentum. Yet, despite the great franchise that AOL enjoys and the rapid subscriber growth rate it has been able to achieve, someday earnings will matter. If and when that day comes, the market could be in for a rough time when multiples are no longer measured by triple-digits, but instead are counted to reflect true earnings potential growth. In the meantime, we would not be surprised to see the stock turn on a dime and end in positive territory as the selling is probably viewed as a buying opportunity by some investors.