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Biotech / Medical : Duramed (DRMD) Synthetic Estrogen Product -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Thure Meyer who wrote (932)	3/25/1999 12:56:00 AM
From: Jaidev Sharma	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1837

Wow, this is great news. How do you think that the market will respond. How do you think we should analyse the value of the company? If the US market is $2B and Duramed can get 20%, then as you say the revenue would be 400m, say after sharing with marketing partners it becomes 300m. What is the margin, say 10%- that would mean a profit of 30 million. If the world market yields an equal profit, we'd have a total profit of 60 million. There are 20million shares- this translates into EPS of $3/share. At a PE ratio of say 15, this translates into a share price of $45. Would appreciate if experts can refine this hypothesis. Also, will the market immediately build in the promise of the future in the stock price or will it wait for the company to perform. How has it happened for other big pharmaceutical approvals- does the stock price surge at once and then comes down slowly or does it surge in spaced our rallies. How do you think the price will move in the next few months and why? Jaidev.