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Technology Stocks : Advanced Radio Telecom (ARTT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Peter Ecclesine who wrote (515)	3/25/1999 10:17:00 PM
From: SteveG	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 1176

Thanks (again) Peter. Appreciate your elucidation. If you find the time, care to further clarify the spread spectrum use with 1MHz frequency hopping, vs "direct" sequence spectrum spreading, and the data rate differences? Also, how does Glennayre (I used to own them - thought they just did paging) squeeze 100Mbps at 5.75GHz? How much spectrum do they use, what size channels, at what distances, and what coding algorithms? Also, for those interested, the following was BTAB wireless telecom analyst Bo Fifer's BBFW highlights of their CTO Summit earlier this month. Note that though ARTT is mentioned, BTAB's current DCF for ARTT is not given. I suspect that Bo (like us) is waiting to confirm that ARTT funding is in place. And though I am enjoying the ride up on this expectation, my gut is the longer they go before finalizing and announcing something, the more likely that good terms have not been found. I don't know if I will hold my nicely profitable stock and option gains until Wed. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ HIGHLIGHTS: -Wireless highlights at the BT Alex. Brown CTO Summit in New York Tuesday (9-Mar), began with the opening panel: "Global Capacity: Shortage or Glut". The panel highlighted the immense opportunity for wireless carriers to win market share in the local loop (both fixed and mobile). We continue to believe the cost/capacity profile for wireless networks is a key advantage over other technologies. -FOUR KEY POINTS: We took away the following four key points from the panel, which was composed of wireline, wireless, incumbent, and insurgent carriers, as bullish for the prospects for fixed wireless: 1) Local Loop Capacity Shortage. Panelists were in agreement (even, but not surprisingly, the lone RBOC representative) that the bottle neck today exists in the local loop. The aging copper plant is simply not optimized for high-speed communications. 2) Long Distance Capacity Is Fine. Enough fiber is being laid in the wide area networks today that capacity in the core of the network is not seen as an issue by the panel. Pricing of these services is becoming "irrelevant". We believe this further points to the real value being in the local network. 3) Improvements to #1 Could Lead To Changes in #2. Most of the panelists seemed to be looking for wireless and xDSL technologies to open up the data market. In fact, the argument could be made that the success of wireless and other broadband access mediums could ultimately reverse the capacity conditions in the LD portion of the network. It seems that those in the core are expecting wireless to change the current conditions of the network- -certainly a bullish prospect for fixed wireless. 4) Regulatory Issues are Favorable for Local Loop Competition. In the U.S. (and perhaps more importantly in other regions of the world) regulators are increasingly focused on opening up competition in the local loop. This is good news for the wireless CLECs (as with any CLEC) who stand to benefit from greater access to the RBOC network. -NET-NET: This panel (composed of representatives from Covad, Global TeleSystems, MCI WorldCom, STAR Telecom., Teligent, US West, and law firm Swidler, Berlin) unanimously pointed to the local loop as the area of greatest opportunity in the telecom landscape. As such, we believe Teligent, WinStar and ART hold an extraordinary amount of strategic value to any carrier with an interest in bypassing the incumbent local network. While we would not speculate on a specific company level, we continue to see logical strategic benefits to IXCs, fiber-based CLECs, foreign telcos, and ISPs. -VALUATION: Based on our 10-year DCFs, using a 20% equity discount rate and a 10x terminating multiple, our 12-month price object for TGNT is $49/share, and for WCII $64/share. Maintain "strong buy" investment ratings on both stocks.