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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary Burton who wrote (40810)	3/25/1999 9:26:00 AM
From: Big Dog	Respond to of 95453

Where does it leave the drillers? 15-17 oil is not a "bad" price. I think this may be a good way to look at it: The higher the oil price (say 18-20+) = the shorter time the price needs to "stick". The lower the oil price (say within 15-17) = the longer time the price needs to "stick". Long term, stable prices at 15-17 would create a "normalcy" in the drilling business I think. No boom, no bust -- just steady work and maybe even rational behavior by the drillers and by the oil companies. I haven't thought about this for more than one minute, so I could be off base. big loosbrock.com

To: Gary Burton who wrote (40810)	3/25/1999 1:04:00 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Respond to of 95453

I addressed the issue of how high OPEC will allow prices to go when I replied to Captain Kirk's projection of $25 crude this year a few days ago, My take remains the same. Saudi Arabia has stated it would like to see prices in the high teens. But probably only after demand picks up. Until then probably $15-16. I don't think there is much of a chance that OPEC will hike output objectives unless crude threatens to go above $18 short-term or $20 longer-term. The powers that be (the international financial elite) have long preferred that crude fluctuate between $15 and $20. They supported OPEC cuts when prices fell below that "floor"and threatened to remain there. But they will insist on higher OPEC output if prices threaten to break the $20 "ceiling." Still lots of upside in the OSX even if crude is capped at $20 for quite some time.