Koreans could help speed up 300-mm
Semiconductor Business News, © 1999, CMP Media Inc.
March 15, 1999
By Jack Robertson
SEOUL -- It may have had trouble getting started, but the 300-mm train
may be ready to leave the station. Not with just Intel Corp., which is
expected shortly to announce the go-ahead with its 300-mm pilot line
(see story in the Feb. 1 publication), but also with the South Koreans.
That kind of crowd probably will be more than enough to get most of the
big players to jump on board even though no one really knows yet what
the economics will be with the giant platters. But with the Koreans
hopping aboard, there's a good chance that moving to the next-generation
wafer could easily throw DRAM supply and demand out of whack. Spokesmen
for Samsung Electronic Industries Co. confirm that the South Korean
company quietly has launched a 300-mm pilot line at one of its Kiheung
development fabs. The DRAM giant hasn't decided yet on a timetable for
when the 300-mm effort might be expanded into a prototype development
line. "We want to get early experience in this new technology before we
take the next step," a Samsung spokesman says.
Another South Korean DRAM giant, Hyundai Electronic Industries Co., also
may be getting aboard. It now is considering putting up a 300-mm pilot
line at one of the fabs it is acquiring in the LG Semicon Co. merger,
according to Korean sources. But this decision will have to wait until
the purchase of LG Semicon is completed, a Hyundai spokesman says.
The big chip merger was still deadlocked over the acquisition price in
mid-March, so any decision on the 300-mm pilot line also has been
delayed. But Korean sources say that Hyundai is prepared to go ahead and
install a 300-mm pilot line at one of its own fabs, if necessary.
For now, the only 300-mm pilot line that's been completed is the
joint-venture installation of Siemens Semiconductor and Motorola Inc. in
Dresden, Germany. Intel is expected to announce the startup of its
300-mm pilot line at development fab D1B in Hillsboro, Ore., which would
be followed by a 300-mm development line called D1C located at the same
complex.
The microprocessor giant intends to spend $1.3 billion over the next two
years on the two lines, according to Intel documents drafted to secure
Oregon state tax incentives. The Intel plan calls for $600 million to be
spent at D1B in 2001 and 2002, and $1 billion to be invested in D1C
during the same period. Expenditures in 2003 and 2004 would rise to $780
million for D1B and $1.8 billion for D1C. Then in 2005 Intel's 300-mm
investments includes spending $1 billion at D1B and $2.3 billion in D1C.
That would add up to a breathtaking $8.78 billion being invested by
Intel for its 300-mm lines in Oregon over the next seven years.
And that's just the beginning. The spurt in 300-mm interest by the
Koreans could also stir arch-rival Micron Technology Inc. into seriously
considering the new wafer technology now. So far, Micron has stayed on
the sidelines, claiming that it preferred to let other vendors pioneer
and find where the problems are in converting a fab to 300-mm wafers.
But Micron does have a fab that may be a possible candidate for
installing 300-mm production gear. That is its currently empty Lehi,
Utah, superfab. Micron president Steve Appleton long has insisted that
his Utah plant will be equipped and launched "when the time is right."
For now at least, Micron definitely doesn't need the Lehi facility as
another 200-mm wafer production site. It expects to double its present
output of DRAMs next year when the upgraded 0.18-micron fabs that it
acquired from Texas Instrument Inc. come on line. At that point, Micron
is projected to turn out some 50-to-60-million 64-megabit DRAMs a month.
The next chip maker expected to join the 300-mm ranks after Intel and
the Koreans will be Texas Instruments, Inc. That's what analysts Clark
Fuhs at Dataquest in San Jose and Danny Lam at IC Insights in
Scottsdale, Ariz., are predicting. A TI announcement on a go-ahead is
expected within the next few months.
Location of TI's 300-mm activities is expected to be in Dallas at what
was to be its DMOS-6 fab, now just an empty shell. The Dallas chip maker
is expected initially to install a 300-mm pilot line, then follow up
later with a full development line there.
IC Insights' Lam believes that TI will move quickly to bring 300-mm into
production to provide adequate capacity for its exploding lines of
digital signal processors (DSP), discrete components, and embedded
chips. "The worst thing that could happen to TI," he says, "is for them
not to have the DSP capacity to face the mounting threat from the Lucent
Technology-Motorola alliance and perhaps the even greater danger from
Intel, which will have DSP technology from Analog Devices."
What companies will follow TI with their own 300-mm pilot lines are
harder to predict. Motorola already has decided that it will locate its
first 300-mm development line and then its first production line at its
projected superfab in West Creek, Va., outside Richmond which is now on
hold.
While Motorola has not made any firm decisions as yet, it plans to start
equipping a 300-mm development line in 2000, using the tool set
qualified by its pilot-line joint venture with Siemens AG's
Semiconductor Group, according to Bill Walker, Motorola's vice president
of manufacturing. The 300-mm development line would be the first line
started up at the West Creek site.
Siemens plans to use the Dresden pilot line expertise too to build its
own 300-mm production fab. The German chip maker has property adjoining
the Dresden pilot fab to build a new plant of equal size, which could be
the new 300-mm production area.
Siemens is getting ready to spin off its semiconductor operations, but
that shouldn't affect 300-mm plans. Some analysts speculate that
Motorola and Siemens might decide to join ultimately in a cooperative
300-mm production, but both companies insist that such a fab isn't being
planned now.
As for the Japanese, NEC Corp. is leading the way. It says that it will
install a 300-mm development line in Japan in 2000 that would be
expanded to full production within a year. NEC also expects to add new
production facilities at its Roseville, Calif., site which will be
launched in 2002 as a 300-mm fab.
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