Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Berliner who wrote (8436)	3/25/1999 1:38:00 PM
From: Thomas M.	Respond to of 9980

#reply-8508721

To: Paul Berliner who wrote (8436)	3/25/1999 3:41:00 PM
From: nihil	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9980

The article struck me as a piece of pseudo-scientific drivel. "Technical analysis" is a lot of fun, and explains the past quite well, but ignores all fundamental (economic) data except price and volume and is (therefore) devoid of predictive capacity. The references to quantum physics are absurd, even as an analogy. Quantum scale uncertainty in the physical universe does not prevent the prediction of ballistic missile striking points within known circular error, or the orbits of satellites -- a much simpler task than predicting capital movements which results from millions of individual investment decisions each determined by rational non-random decision processes. A satellite path can be predicted with precision (unless one uses a Long March rocket to launch it) while while the capital markets cannot even conceptually be predicted -- too much data, two many different investment processes, too much time required for calculation. Accurate accounting models would allow reasonably accurate prediction of the next brief period (day?) but inherent uncertainty will prevent accurate prediction of several years ahead in a nearly free capital market perhaps forever. If one desires accurate prediction, he will need to return to central planning or allocation of capital, which has never worked when tried, and hardly seems worth revisiting.