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To: phbolton who wrote (44357)3/25/1999 4:58:00 PM
From: DJBEINO  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 53903
 
"Weaker demand coupled with abundant supply has caused some 64 MEG PC-66
product (8MX8) to break the $8.00 barrier. The more popular 64 MEG devices
continue to be PC-100. Trading activity has increased with Intel Processors
as many OEM's are participating in excess opportunities."according to AICE

Wednesday March 24, 1999

Activity remains strong on 1MX16 DRAM in the FPM and SYNCH PC-100 modes.
Direct factory support remains weak, as lead times grow longer. Prices go
lower on select 64 MEG product as supply outpaces demand. 8MX8 SYNCH 4
BANKS 3V PC-100, 16MX4 EDO in both the SOJ and TSOP package and 16MX4 SYNCH
4 BANKS 3V PC-100 are trading at lower levels today. Intel CPU trading is
stable.

Tuesday March 23, 1999

Intel Pentium III CPU sales in the Pacific Rim White Box market have
noticeably picked up over the last few days. With regards to DRAM trading,
current trends continue.

Monday March 22, 1999

1MX16 DRAM continues to be the hot product in the open market. OEM's are
actively pursuing availabilities and are willing to pay a premium. The rest
of the DRAM market is mostly stable as product is in decent supply and
prices are holding firm. Intel CPU trading is stable, but pricing remains
weak.



To: phbolton who wrote (44357)3/25/1999 5:07:00 PM
From: John Graybill  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 53903
 
Is 50 tomorrow too much to hope for?

I think it is. My own anectodal evidence:

- In addition to the 2:30 massive market-wide program which I noted earlier, in which MU did not participate, there were noticeable buy programs today at 3:20 and 3:45. The 2:30 and 3:45 are quite clear on most of the indexes, the 3:20 not quite as strong.

But they were repeats of 2:30: Time & Sales for MU shows a 110K block at 3:23 that, I have no doubt whatsoever, was a buy generated along with all the other buys. "You want to buy 110K shares? No problem! Here you go, would you like fries with that?" No change in the MU bid/ask as everything else kept going up. Same at 3:45, there were two blocks of 25K that barely budged it, and for only about a dozen trades at that. Buying "pressure" has no effect now.

- As I posted earlier, I bought Apr 50 puts (at 4 when MU was 49 3/4) and immediately entered an order to sell Apr 47 1/2 puts at 3 3/4. When I saw MU fail to bounce with the rest of the market, twice, I called to do a straight cancel. Nope, I got filled ten minutes later. Yah, it was busy today, no question about that, but the only times this has happened to me before, it became clear very quickly that the cancel would have left me in a much better position.

But I ain't complaining. My 50 - 47 1/2 spread cost me a net of 1/4 plus two commissions, and I stand to gain 2 1/2 if we close below 47 1/2 at expiration. Plus, I'll take that impossible-to-cancel fill as a really reliable hint that we got plenty more downside tomorrow morning.

- Down 4+ on GIANT volume after "good" earnings is the definition of a failure. All the "good news" (!) is more than fully accounted for now. How many brokers remain even to re-iterate their sorry "buy" recommendations? The rush to the exits is underway.

Any bounce tomorrow and I buy another load of Apr 50 puts!