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To: Boplicity who wrote (5105)3/25/1999 8:09:00 PM
From: JRI  Respond to of 17183
 
Greg- If oil remains in $18 range, we are OK....if it spikes up to $25-30 and stays there, we could see some pressure on inflation...but, commodity prices are still in the cellar, and labor productivity (at least for the Fed's point of view) is equalling any gains in wage inflation...

On balance, for the near term (next quarter), IMO, there is still more danger of deflation than inflation....Europe is barely growing, Japan still can't grow...(although that could change by the end of year)...the rest of Asia is rocky at best......Latin America will have a bad year.......and there are signs that the U.S. is slowing down (housing, manufacturing numbers were pretty bad last month)...

Too early to worry about inflation, IMO. The Fed certainly is not going to do anything anytime soon...