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Technology Stocks : SAP A.G. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: P.M.Freedman who wrote (3155)	3/25/1999 9:06:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3424

re:"Why on earth does this stock still trade at a 50 PE?": Valuation, measured by P/E, P/CF, P/S, is useful relative to the historical pattern, and when comparing similar companies. As an absolute number, it doesn't tell much. For SAP: (from Baseline Profiles) value,5-year range,current: P/E, 37-356, 50 P/S, 4.1-14.9, 6.4 long-term future earnings growth rate: 30% For MSFT: P/E, 22-77, 77 P/S, 4.6-26.4, 26.4 long-term future earnings growth rate: 25% So, SAP is at the low end of its historical range. If you're waiting for a PE of 35, then you're waiting for something that has never happened, not even briefly, anytime in the last 5 years. Could it happen? Yes. Is it likely? No. With the monopoly trials, Java, and the internet, I think MSFT's market position is no more secure, in its niche, than is SAP's. They are both huge dominant software companies with a franchise in a large and growing market. Both have proven management. And pristine balance sheets. Actually, SAP's balance sheet is better than MSFT's, if you count all the stock options MSFT has granted, which are really a lien on future shareholder returns. A large lien. So, I think the two companies are roughly comparable. And SAP's P/S ratio is a great value, at only 6.4, compared to MSFT's 26.4

To: P.M.Freedman who wrote (3155)	3/31/1999 1:15:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3424

good news=no response in SAP stock price to this news: PeopleSoft Warns Revenue Will Miss Analyst Forecasts Dow Jones Newswires March 31, 1999 PeopleSoft Inc., a developer of enterprise resource planning, or ERP, software, on Wednesday issued another warning for the first quarter, saying that revenue and operating profit margins would miss expectations. In Nasdaq Stock Market trading Wednesday, PeopleSoft's once-highflying shares were down 93.75 cents at $14.625, below the previous 52-week low of $15.125 set March 24. The stock traded at more than $57 last April. PeopleSoft, citing a slowdown in software license sales, expects to report first-quarter revenue of $275 million to $305 million. That compares with the year-ago quarter's $277.7 million, which had represented an 80% surge from the first quarter of 1997. PeopleSoft said the jump in revenue between 1997 and 1998 was a direct result of customers buying software to prepare for the year-2000 computer glitch. The current slowdown reflects market conditions in which customers are taking longer to close license agreements. PeopleSoft said its win rate against competitors remains unchanged. Citing uncertainty in current market conditions, PeopleSoft didn't provide a profit or loss forecast. The most recent mean estimate of analysts surveyed by First Call was for a profit of 12 cents a share. The Pleasanton, Calif., company first warned in January that first-quarter results would fall short of analysts' estimates and announced job cuts. But investors were relieved to learn at the time that the company wouldn't have to restate results from 1996 to 1998 after a Securities and Exchange Commission probe into acquisition-related charges. ERP software makes it easier for companies to manage their finance, human resource, manufacturing and other operations. The software helps users with everything from better sales forecasting to reducing inventory and quickly spotting parts shortages. PeopleSoft is one of four world leaders in the ERP segment. The other big players are German giant SAP AG, Dutch company Baan Co. and database giant Oracle Corp. PeopleSoft is considered the leader in sales to human-resource departments.