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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BGR who wrote (112519)	3/25/1999 10:25:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Respond to of 176387

Uninteresting story with some good bits at Bloomberg site... quote.bloomberg.com and the good bits... ... IBM, Dell Computer Corp., Cisco Systems Inc. and others that sell high-tech equipment and services are discovering their biggest opportunities aren't Fortune 500 companies, but clients like Heise whom they used to ignore. Sales of PCs to small businesses are expected to jump 32 percent this year, compared with a 6 percent rise in the overall personal-computer market, according to researcher Dataquest. Sales of computers, software and services to businesses with fewer than 400 workers will rise 12 percent to $54.7 billion. ''It's better than almost every market,'' said Ray Boggs of International Data Corp. ''The opportunity is so significant because there are so many small businesses.'' New small businesses created 69 percent of U.S. jobs from 1990 to 1995, according to the U.S. Small Business Administration. Among the 5.63 million companies in the U.S., only 15,000 employ more than 500 people. That makes small business big game. ... Dell Computer expects sales to small companies, the fastest- growing part of its business, to top $1 billion this year. Its small-business sales increased 65 percent last year. The No. 3 PC maker introduced a new Internet program for customers who can't come to Dell's headquarters in Round Rock, Texas, for training and seminars. ''It gives customers all the benefits of an on-site briefing without the time or travel expense,'' said John Hamlin, director of Dell's small business strategy. Small businesses can see new products, take a factory tour via their PC and watch demos of new systems through an Internet site. Also, Dell hosts Internet breakfasts with founder Michael Dell leading discussions about technical issues. ...

To: BGR who wrote (112519)	3/25/1999 11:17:00 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 176387

BGR- Thanks for the compliment...Let me add that I estimate that 40-50% of Dell's business for the quarter is probably closed in the last week of March and April (due to end of quarter, March, for other PC makers, and Dell last month being April)....I have read in several places that, frequently, PC makers revenues are skewed 20-30-50 during the quarter....even if the actual numbers are wrong, the skewing part is, in all likelihood correct. All this, IMO. So it is amazing to see columns like Greenberg's, or the DLJ analyst, where they come out and state that Dell's revs are going to be 5.35b...they are sure of themselves while 50% of the quarter is still on the table? Things can move awfully fast in PCland...one month to the next, things can change pretty dramatically...so, IMO, it is unreasonable for them to float this view so early. However, regardless, the .15 EPS prediction is also a joke, IMO...No way.... that would be a disasterous result, everyone knows it...and only a bear believing his own hyperbole would stand on that... Having said this, in my view, the jury (on revenues) is still out on the quarter..although the start has been fairly good (judging by managment's, some analysts' statements)...maybe even very good.. I'll leave you with one last comment: Last year, around the time of the analyst meeting (2nd week in April), MD was pretty bullish for the quarter, and told analysts so....I think (around April 8 last year), MD felt real good about business....Dell, indeed, had a very good quarter, but it was viewed as a "disappointment"...many had expected more...I think even MD thought the final numbers would close higher than they did.......This is what I believe: 2nd half of April, sales collapsed for many PC makers (for other PC cos., last April was a bad month overall.....major PC unstuffing, weak demand)...I have the feeling that some purchases for Dell got delayed into the next quarter, Q2 (because it was a blowout)...but, on April 9th, MD probably could not tell which sales was going to close or not, but he knew what there was good interest in the pipeline, and that sales for the 60-70% of the quarter that were complete were quite good......Of course, this quarter, we would LOVE last 1st quarter's growth %'s (all in the 50's, I believe..or close to it...).. My point being, by the time of the analyst meeting, we will have a pretty good idea of what the quarter will be, but even that won't be definitive...as we saw last quarter (apparently), a 200m swing can happen in the last couple weeks...since the focus is totally on revenues (it seems), it could go to the wire.....so we'll just have to see....Needless to say, I think management is very aware of the need of hitting all cylinders on revenue, and I am sure that this quarter's results will reflect that... Like I said before, I think we will see somewhere between 40-42% rev. growth y-o-y for the quarter...