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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dstand who wrote (9840)	3/26/1999 7:06:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 27311

dstand, I agree that something might be brewing (I think I was the first to ask "do I smell a PO here"), but you also must look at the chart, it speaks for itself. VLNC has a lot of overhead supply in the $8 to $8.5, and it may take this out if you have two or three days of close to a million shares per day. If that happen, the run to $11 may indeed follow. However, you must weigh this against few other factors. The increase in the last few months of the short interest (either hedged or fresh), 90% of the time, the shorters are right. The uncertainties involved with a major shipment of a new product that no one knows how it responds to its use (and abuse) by actual end customers. It reminds me the company (I forgot their name) that came up with that extremely successful "Cabbage Patch Doll" and than they turned around and leveraged this success with the "Adam Computer", to find out that it was also quite successful, but lo and behold, when these were in the fields for any length of time they started to fall apart. The company ended up in CH 11, because they ramped up too fast and were not ready for Mr. Murphy's reaction to such "outrage". When you couple these strategic consideration with a negative Altman Z factor, you see a company risking its life on the line that indeed the launch of the portable battery will be successful. Zeev