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To: John Pitera who wrote (28245)	3/26/1999 4:14:00 PM
From: NickSE	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 86076

I can't believe you and Luc are rippin' on ahhaha. Check out his PM to me on why we're in a bear (w/ permission from ahhaha of course) ...You must remember that a bear market doesn't mean a crash. It just means you can't chase stocks and portfolios do poorly --- worse than the market. You have to keep big cash position and only have a few stocks. If the market goes up and provides solid evidence that the bull is on, you have cash to participate. You just have to be careful to not buy bottoms. I'm an old pro at the biz and have worn many hats in it and outside of it. Without going into a lot of complicated stuff I will just say that good evidence of bear market action was seen last month when the averages failed to plunge, there was a shallow correction and then a run up to new highs without confirmation. Today, the market was preparing to tank and when it didn't, in the last hour it suddenly zoomed back up. They call this the running of the shorts and it is always seen in broadening tops. It is the equivalent of an upside bottom, so there is no net movement for a long time. You will see that this short covering action runs out of gas quickly, but not before having done the damage to the shorts. Then there is another weak sell-off. This action persists and gradually forms a trading range with mild swings up and down. They're tough to trade and they kill buy and hold. Meanwhile your portfolio is draining away as Abby Cohen and other amateurs promote the bull market. They are sincere in their belief. It isn't a manipulation. They believe because they can't see any reason why not. That's the challenge. It takes more than anyone I've ever seen or known to get it right, but from my unequalled experience, this top is as grand as the bull market that led here. It isn't going to let anyone out. It will do whatever it takes to suck you in or keep you in so that downstream you'll find you're losing. That's what most money managers are seeing already. The averages rise but their portfolios fall. There has been little portfolio value add since July '97 which was the initial top of the bull market. A believer in Elliot Wave might call it a fourth count. We have had several other peaks. Apr '98, Jul '98, Jan '99, Mar '99. What is happening is different groups are topping at these peaks and so the bear market is distributed. The early peaker groups in '97 are not reviving and heading back up. They're locked into the downside. No one talks about them or that. The techs topped in Jan '99, but they haven't got far enough down yet for people to say, "oh my god, we're in a bear market". Usually you don't hear that until people have lost half their portfolios. So what you will see is no individual stocks rising, only the averages! There are lots of amateur bears and clowns like Prechter etc., but none of these guys can give you solid arguments of why we have entered into the mouth of the bear. I alone can and have done so extensively all over SI. I have received nothing but ridicule. That's another good reason. None can refute my arguments because they don't want it to be true. The bull is the way to easy riches and so anyone going against that dream must be eliminated. They think they are refuting the arguments, but they don't even understand them. They don't have any knowledge of the macroeconomic machinery which is only faintly related to the movement of stock prices, so it is humorous to see them spin. I have made great efforts to educate a few about what is actually going on under the appearances. They are slowly seeing the reality because the reality is almost completely unknown. The universities are worse than useless about this comprehension. This process has been remarkably slow in contrast toi previous periods in history and so people just won't accept what always comes. Not surprisingly, they never did in the past. After all, the majority have to lose and so in order to bring about that reality, the nature of existence clothes it in an appetizing way so that the foolish will buy and swallow trhe appearances. Later everyone says, "how could we have been so stupid". Actually, they sat that. They don't say anything because they rarely admit losses. It is human nature to boast about gains and deny losses. I think it is important to admit your losses, because it helps you to be objective about what you're doing. You won't hear anyone on SI tell you about losses. That's another item of evidence for the bear...