To: John Mansfield who wrote (5058 ) 3/26/1999 11:17:00 PM From: flatsville Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 9818
Friday March 26 2:30 AM ET Big Oil Exporters Pose Key Y2K Puzzle By Andrew Mitchell LONDON (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia is best prepared of all Middle East oil exporters to cope with the Year 2000 computer bug problem but the whole region could do more to cope with potential supply disruptions, a U.N. official said Thursday. ''Most Middle East producers have implemented programs to try and solve the problem, and Saudi Arabia is at the head of them,'' said Mohammed Mrayati, science and technology adviser for the Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA).''But in many of them no contingency plans exist in case things do go wrong so we have advised them to develop measures.'' The United States recently admitted fears that its reliance on oil imports from outside the industrialized world makes it vulnerable to a supply crunch if, as predicted, computers around the globe fail to recognize the dawn of year 2000. ''Nearly 50 percent of the oil used in the U.S. comes from foreign sources, yet many of the countries have a high risk of failure,'' a Senate special committee report said this month. Three of the top five U.S. oil suppliers -- Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and Nigeria -- are up to 18 months behind in preparing for the millennium bug, the report said. Another key exporter, Kuwait, is understood to be especially far back. The Senate report said the industry and the federal government needed to monitor the situation carefully, saying U.S gasoline prices could rise sharply if crude supplies were hit. Saudi Arabia's progress on millennium bug compliance is particularly important as it is comfortably the world's biggest oil producer. ''Like a lot of the producers the government has handed the problem over to its state oil company, and Saudi Aramco has got American companies in to help it,'' said the U.N.'s Mrayati. Surprisingly, Iraq's two million bpd of exports should not be hit too hard, despite its long isolation by U.N sanctions. ''Iraq is aware of the problems and local officials say they are dealing with it,'' said Mrayati. ''They are also less vulnerable because they have missed out on a lot of modern automation over the last decade.'' The threat of supply chaos early in 2000 will bolster lowly oil prices later this year as traders buy advance provisions, analysts said.As well as potential oilfield shutdowns, refineries and oil tankers could suffer. Some shipping bodies are understood to have decided not to carry any oil around the turn of the year. (Other than Chevron?)''It wouldn't take more than a two percent cut in output -- 1.5 million bpd -- to dramatically alter oil market fundamentals and lead to a significant price increase,'' said Peter Bogin of Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) in Paris. The biggest question mark will remain against how the big oil exporters of the Middle East, Latin America and Africa will cope. A senior Libyan technology official said that its state oil company was working hard to minimize the threat of any problems, but admitted that time was running short. ''We are taking the matter very seriously,'' he said ''But it will be another six months before we know the full situation, and even then unforeseen problems can never be ruled out.''