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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: StockOperator who wrote (9279)	3/26/1999 7:08:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

>>Of course its important to make the distinction between trading the intermediate market swings and the longer term outlook. But yet I feel many have been whipsawed back and forth with all the volatility. It's the long term picture that counts most during periods of market consolidation. << I have stated numerous times that I am a 99.9% option trader and I really don't care what the long term picture is except for my kid's education IRAs which stay in except in large obvious drops and times like now when there is a major shuffle going on in which stocks are strong. As an option trader, the extreme short term is what is important. This is why I look at the immediate trends and sector rotations. I have stated that I think late April will be upward biased again but that I thought the near term would be biased downward due soley to earnings warning season. When the averages started falling, my forks went down and have caught the moves fairly well I think. I have to admit that I didn't think my middle tines would catch the bounce this week like they did and that I thought we would drop to the lower tines but the fork told the story and I just didn't guess or read it correctly. Also, though I think actual earnings release season will be upward later on, it is to be expected that the bias is bearish considering the new lows being made daily by the majority of stocks despite the indexes showing highs. The advance decline ratio is miserable and ever since October, the stocks with the worst earnings prospects or unknown valuation models (internets) aer the only ones climbing. These are not healthy signs. I think Don's advise a while back to stick with longs in the indexes and shorts in stocks was advise worth a mint as it has proved true unless you picked one of the few stocks that is going up. Even if you picked a rising stock, how comfortable can you be sleeping at night with a nut stock like AOL that has a PE of 500 or more while you see good companies stocks with actual earnings and growth trading at PE ratios in the teens and twenties? When the time comes, hopefully some bullishness will return but if the market would cooperate and put some breadth back into these moves, it would make the transition easier. <g> Good Luck, Lee

To: StockOperator who wrote (9279)	3/26/1999 7:21:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

StockOperator, Thanks for your comments. Right now I do not see a bear market starting, but I do feel there will be a correction, no big deal. Frankly, I invite a bullish arguement and you mentioned the bandwidth stocks which have moved up. But besides yourself and a few others, who are bullish have had very little to contribute. They mostly just write short sour posts since many on this thread do not agree with the bullish sentiment, and seldom do they back themselves with technical substance. Most of those who are bearish on this thread support their position with technicals, and it should be understood that most of those who are bearish here are technicians not fundamentalists. We invite bullish opinions, but all we request is some substance to support their positions, as you have by identifying a sector which is still strong. Seeya

To: StockOperator who wrote (9279)	3/26/1999 10:21:00 PM
From: ALTERN8	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

SO, Welcome back. CYSP was a great call of yours I made a 100% on in one day. This thread needs more long term bulls for sure, sometimes after reading many bear posts I have to keep myself from jumping out of my 9th floor window. Of course I don't mean that the bears can't be right sometimes but as a long term patient investor who trades often I don't always look to make money only in the short term. Donald, I enjoy your posts as well and they have become an integral part of my day especially since the absence of SO and also because they are on the money. $$$$$$ tchaching!