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To: Bill F. who wrote (28361)	3/26/1999 9:44:00 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

Bill, I tend to agree with you about gold.....I think we could see new lows down to 250 or even 225 later this year 200 on the outside in a liquidation capitulation. At which point It will be a sensational buy John

To: Bill F. who wrote (28361)	3/27/1999 2:07:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

you could be right... it is just that I think currency (specifically yen/dollar) is what is going to bring down the US stock and bond mkts. Obviously, that is bullish for gold (the traders' comm's only add to the validity of that speculation). This whole currency system based on paper dollars is unstable (as evidenced by the currency implosions of SEA in 1997 that set all this off.. really you can even go back to 1987) Once the dollar initially implodes, I think you'll be right, there will be a reaosn to invest in other things besides stocks.. so gold will get a bid.. but I think it will be dramtically higher than it is now. How's $400 sound for craziness! -g- Currency set this whole thing off in round 1 Mexico... round 2 SEA, round 3 Brazil..... ROUND 4..... the US dollar implodes. If you think about it, we have been witnessing country after country being liquidated and that investment turned into dollars (an actual panic into the dollar... PANICS mark tops and bottoms) over the last couple yrs.... the natural culmination of that is for the US to to be liquidated in kind and those dollars turned into gold or another currency (thus completing the cycle of panic). Just my opinion... and I'm wrong lots. we'll see what unfolds next week. The yen should begin to rise substantially after the 3/31 yr-end as the Japanese government will no longer have a reason to talk it down in order to assist its banks in repatraiting monies for their fiscal yr-end. The technical picture (if you like entrails.. I only use them for timing purposes) is setting up REMARKABLY exactly like 1987.. see my post earlier ont his thread last Fri concerning how we are tracking 1987. This would indicate to me.. we are headed for a meltdown of sorts. that can only be caused by a movement in currency that causes a rise in interest rates... ie- bond mkt seems ready to crash. I spent some time explaining this cause I am interested in your thoughts on the subject, I know you and Jim Grant both have been discussing the "bonfirte of the currencies" what's your take on the subject?