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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TechTrader42 who wrote (44451)	3/27/1999 12:17:00 AM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

b, you haven't been around this thread long. here is the scoop. some folks do real research, understand economics and don't have axes to grind. those folks realized a glut was occurring when all the cheerleaders were just "rah, rahing." oh, it feels good to rah, rah. feeling good isn't the point. understanding markets is. in 1997, there was a group of folks that said 1998 was a disaster year while the pros and bulls were saying, "nope, mu's gonna make $3.00+ next year and you guys are just sour. the stock is going to $60+ b/c the prospects are so good." no matter how many times the bears said that the koreans were holding inventory and that they would have to unleash it and the results would be disaster, they didn't listen. the stock went up, the analysts rah, rah (tom kurlack was quoted as saying mu was in "the best of all worlds" about a week before he downgraded the stock and it lost 2/3 of its value in a short period of time - thanks, tom). anyhoo, 12 cents isn't much for a stock in a mature commodity market serving a market where revs are shrinking. look at cash flow. i bet mu spent over $200 million to make that $30 million. they'll spend another $200 mil next q. asps are down from last q's levels. the inventory holders are releasing now. it seems that mu was a participant this time - they weren't in 1997. next q looks like a dime or less. but, you say, mu will cut costs. yes. however, those cost cuts result in steep ramps of output which, voila, directly puts pressure on pricing. mu's debt has skyrocketed just a few years after the largest dram boom in history. spend a dollar to make a dime and you'll soon find out why - no matter how you do the accounting. interest payments are now hitting the bottom line. more to come. how will the principal be paid back when they spend $200 mil to make $30 mil? mu's competitors are not just companies, but whole nations. you think korea will give up? not a chance. their govt will intervene when push comes to shove. the end market is tanking. retail pc sales were down 16% in feb. piiis were out in feb. units up a whopping 1%. why hold back b/c piiis aren't available when they are available? the fastest growing pc market is the $600 and under market. not too many 128 mb boxes there, my friend. this time is different from 1997 for 2 reasons, one good and one bad for mu. 1. every dram playeris more cautious as they were badly spanked in what was supposed to be a boom year (except for those with eyes to see...). 2. units and mb per box were growing rapidly (20%+, 80%+) in 1997 and 1998 and now they aren't (1-5%, 30% or so). muei has one disaster after another. microstamp was doa (mu touyted this as a billion ollar product ;-). will intel shell out another $500 to keep mu floating? will applesauce try and punch out a rambus exec next? will he dis' rambus? will kip ba-blowhard tease the weak minds of the devoted? find out in the weeks to come as the micron world turns. >>No one really knows where this wretched stock is going to go<< with that, we all can agree. it is going to the low teens b/c that is close to fair value. i just have no idea when, or, if it will go through $100 first. i wonder if off by niles invites all the execs of companies he follows to his parties???

To: TechTrader42 who wrote (44451)	3/27/1999 2:02:00 AM
From: John Graybill	Respond to of 53903

Brookelise, I'm gonna hold my tongue and simply tell you to pick the short-term top or bottom of your choice in 1999, check the thread, and see if (a) our posted trades and predictions have worked out and/or (b) if we have, as a group, truly been only bearish the entire time. See you in a couple of days. p.s.: The "tortured arguments" were being made by the analysts as Micron dropped ten percent on one of the top-ten biggest volume days in the history of the company. The corrections to their mistakes and outright lies are right here. You'll find a lot of that in the thread history as well.

To: TechTrader42 who wrote (44451)	3/27/1999 7:46:00 AM
From: TREND1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

b, you haven't been around this thread long. here is the scoop Did some bug just post that ? (g) YES this is mostly a bear BB Some bugs here have been bearish from MU=20 to MU=80 to MU =47 One DJ posts info and is bullish and made a ton of money. Myself and DavidG trade MU both long and short. Larry Dudash PS: But it is a fun group !

To: TechTrader42 who wrote (44451)	3/27/1999 10:13:00 AM
From: Carl R.	Respond to of 53903

Brookelise, go back a couple years. This has always been the Micron Shorts Forum. <G> For what it's worth, my computer says that the direction is still down. Earlier when the stock was around 58 I said that the stock was going to 46 first, then to 100. It may well go back to the 30's before making its ultimate move up. I note that even our analyst with a "sell" rating, Tad, agrees that a cyclical recovery is underway. He just thinks that the stock got ahead of itself. Carl