SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Aitch who wrote (54940)3/27/1999 7:10:00 AM
From: hlpinout  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 97611
 
Mornin' Aitch,

Have seen some concurrence in the PW report on Y2K spending,
but have also seen indications that the reduction may not be
as severe as some state.

March 29, 1999, Issue: 835
Section: Service & Integration

Operation White Box -- Mission's Goal: To Effectively
Demonstrate The Value Of The White Box In Corporate
America.
David Jastrow

New York -- The channel has achieved some impressive wins for white-box
respectability in the enterprise, but the battle is just beginning.

While new divisions of major corporations such as Anheuser-Busch
Companies Inc. and MCI WorldCom Inc. have purchased white-box systems
through VARs, many big companies still are reluctant to buy anything but
brand-name systems, said industry executives.

"If the margin propo sition is reasonable then I would expect to see some
penetration, but I question how much," said Carol Miltner, co-founder of
Impact LLC, a Costa Mesa, Calif., consulting firm.

But the move by major distributors to configure white-box systems for
resellers may have started to ease enterprise customers' concerns. For
example, Pinacor Inc. amplified its efforts to deliver reliable, high-quality
white-box systems to resellers.

The Tempe, Ariz.-based distributor builds white-box systems with strongly
branded components such as Intel Corp. for processors and motherboards,
Quantum Corp. for hard drives and Diamond Multimedia Systems Inc. for
multimedia components.

"There is a lot of interest from large integrators when the quality and
consistency is there," said Anthony Cyplik, Pinacor's director of solutions
assembly. "The quality of white boxes varies quite a bit, and that is why
Pinacor has stepped up with higher quality systems."

But after a year of steady acceptance in the enterprise, some big businesses
are opting to buy customized systems directly from vendors. Programs such as
Houston-based Compaq Computer Corp.'s DirectPlus and Dallas-based Dell
Computer Corp.'s Be Direct initiative enable corporations to purchase
custom-configured systems online.

The number of large corporations using white-box systems slipped to 18
percent in February from 22 percent six months ago, according to a CRN
survey of MIS executives at companies with more than $500- million in
revenue. Only 2 percent of those that currently use brand-name systems said
they plan to buy white boxes within the next six months, the survey found.

However, Santa Clara, Calif.-based Intel's strong support of the white box
should help improve the quality consistency of white-box systems, and if larger
integrators such as EDS Corp. and GE Capital IT Solutions start to
private-label systems, more large corporations will feel comfortable, said
Marty Wolf, president of Martin Wolf Associates, a San Ramon, Calif.-based
investment banking firm. "Some large corporations may never endorse or
support unbranded systems," Wolf said. "But they are not necessary for this
market to succeed."

Indeed, 41 percent of small VARs cited white boxes as their best-selling
desktop PCs last month in the CRN/Answers Research Inc. poll, three times
as many as Dell and Compaq, the top-branded desktops. That was the
highest percentage selling unbranded systems in nearly a year, according to the
survey.

"I don't think that it's all about price," said Scott Hicks, owner of S & J
Computer, a Greenville, N.C.-based VAR. "People want specific features
and the branded systems just have too many proprietary parts."


Some larger integrators, such as Hartford Computer Group Inc., which
generated more than $400 million in sales last year, plan to deliver white
boxes as long as their end-customers request them over branded systems.
"We offer one, but most of our larger clients still prefer brand-names," said
Tony Graffia Jr., president of the Inverness, Ill.-based reseller. "We are
primarily in the white-box business because we don't [want to] miss handling
the services of a customer who is only looking to buy white boxes."

While quality and reliability remain high on the priority list, price also plays a
role. The average selling price of a desktop PC in January was $1,523,
according to the monthly CRN/Answers Research poll of small and midsize
VARs. Meanwhile, 63 percent said they were selling self-built systems for less
than $1,400.

The prospects for white-box systems are strong, according to industry
executives and analysts. Distributors, disappointed with the results of channel
assembly, plan to build white-box systems at their new assembly centers, said
Wolf.


They also expect to use online configuration tools such as several offered by
Austin, Texas-based pcOrder.com Inc. These tools provide a broad selection
of component choices for VARs that build their own systems, and include
detailed product descriptions and reviews.

---

Scoring Points?

- 41 percent of VARs said white boxes were top-selling desktops in past 30
days.

- 33 percent of VARs said white boxes were best-selling servers in past 30
days.

Losing Ground?

- 18 percent of corporations with $500- million+ in revenue are using white
boxes, down from 22 percent in October 1998.

- 72 percent of VARs' white-box desktops were sold to companies with
fewer than 100 employees.



To: Aitch who wrote (54940)3/27/1999 7:13:00 AM
From: hlpinout  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 97611
 
Aitch,

March 29, 1999, Issue: 835
Section: Small Business

Small biz better get on the ball for Y2K
Herman Mehling

San Anselmo, Calif. -- Perennially strapped for cash on the one hand, and
slow to change their ways of doing anything on the other, small businesses
have so far lived up to their image as laggards in year 2000 compliance.

More than half of all small businesses have not checked their computers and
software for Y2K compliance, according to a report issued early this year by
the Washington, D.C.-based National Federation of Independent Business
(NFIB).

The NFIB report also revealed that roughly one-third of small businesses have
no plans to inoculate themselves from the bug.

Still, the media's rising tide of doom-and-gloom scenarios, especially of ruined
businesses and sue-happy customers, is beginning to reach the average
small-business owner, according to resellers.

"Small businesses are definitely more aware of Y2K, but I can't say I've seen
a huge mood swing to do anything about it," said Richard J. Daniluk, president
of Richard J. Daniluk, Aurora, Colo. "I would say 50 percent of my small
businesses still haven't done anything and probably won't until it's too late."

Daniluk has noticed one alarming trend among small businesses-the foolhardy
assumption that big vendors have licked Y2K. "People think, 'Oh, this vendor
has a new package that will solve my problem.' Wrong. The fixes keep
coming and will keep coming."

"We've seen quite a bit of Y2K-related activity in the first quarter," said Carl
Livesay, executive vice president of Black Oak Computer Services, a
Salisbury, Md.-based VAR. "Most of it has been hardware-related,
upgrading BIOS or replacing 386s and 486s."

In fact, Black Oak is advising small businesses against buying new software
packages, particularly accounting ones.

"We tell them that this is not the time to switch to another accounting package
because they can avoid a lot of expense for training and installation," Livesay
said. "We advise them to upgrade what they have."

Black Oak also advises its customers against using shareware to find and
solve Y2K fixes, he said. "Shareware is a high-risk option but one that small
businesses are attracted to because it's free," Livesay said.

Black Oak uses only Y2K tools from brand-name companies such as
McAfee Software, a division of Network Associates Inc., Santa Clara, Calif.,
and Symantec Corp., Cupertino, Calif., Livesay said. Besides liking these
companies for the quality of their technology, Black Oak likes them because
they have certified technicians who know their stuff, he said.

The media's bombardment of the Y2K issue is causing small-business owners
to take action, said Paul Wilcox, regional account manager at TechPower
Solutions Inc., a Beaverton, Ore.-based VAR.

"There is definitely not as much complacency among small businesses as there
was six months ago," he said. "Small businesses are calling us about Y2K
because they are reading about the glitches and gotchas, and want to know
how they can make their systems compliant."

What is driving many small businesses to action is the concerns of their
customers and suppliers, said Casey Jongko, network sales specialist at HIQ
Systems Inc., a VAR and white-box builder in Sunnyvale, Calif.

"Their customers and suppliers are asking them if they are Y2K compliant and
what they are doing about it, so they are calling people like us," he said. "In
particular, we've noticed an upsurge in accounting firms updating their
hardware and software because of customer concerns."

While some calls lead to Y2K projects, many do not because Y2K is more of
a management issue than a straightforward technology one, Jongko said. "It's
easy to tell a small-business owner that he needs to replace all his desktops,
but unless he understands why and sees the value in doing so, we don't get
very far."

Lack of business savvy and IT expertise create a lot of fear, uncertainty and
doubt among small-business owners, said Livesay. "Some just don't
understand the consequences of the risks they take."

One of the biggest risks companies take is buying new white boxes or
second-tier motherboards and thinking they have solved their Y2K hardware
problems, said a number of resellers.

"There is a lot of cheap junk hardware that claims to be Y2K compliant and is
not," said Daniluk.

"Some lesser-known motherboards have [components] that are not compliant,
but the average small business doesn't know that," said Jongko. "We've
replaced a number of these boards lately."

For a list of small-business Y2K resources, visit www.crn.com/onlineplus.

---

The Clock Is Ticking

- One-third of all small businesses have no plans to tackle Y2K issues.

- One alarming trend among small businesses is the notion that big vendors
have licked Y2K problem.

- Concern of customers, however, is spurring some businesses to act.



To: Aitch who wrote (54940)3/27/1999 9:12:00 AM
From: Kenya AA  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 97611
 
Hi Aitch: So after all that doom and gloom, he still thinks CPQ will earn .34 in Q1 and 1.85 for the year (.09 above First Call estimates)!?!?!?!

Life is beautiful!

K



To: Aitch who wrote (54940)3/27/1999 9:41:00 AM
From: rupert1  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 97611
 
Aitch: Thanks for that report. PW is listed as having an analyst meeting with COMPAQ next Tuesday. I find this very odd because they published their new estimates of 34 cents 1Q only last Wednesday and because Tuesday is too far into the quiet period for an analyst meeting.

Their impressive sounding warning on PC sales rest on the following:

From March 16 through March 19, 1999, we conducted a proprietary survey on PC demand within the SMB marketing.."

I'm sorry, but until I know (a) who, exactly, did the survey within PW or within the professional survey community (b) how representative was the sample (c) what questions were asked - I cannot take it too seriously. Some obvious questioned are (a) was it restricted to the US or part of the US (b) were questioned asked of representatives of the 50% of small business which the Federal Government Task Force has said have done nothing about YK2 compliance (c) were the main respondents the re-sellers who have an axe to grind on this whole question (d) did they check their "findings" with IDC or even with COMPAQ?

I saw one of PW senior equity strategists on the box yesterday talking about the economy and the market - before I knew who it was my b/s sniffer had already started to boil over.



To: Aitch who wrote (54940)3/27/1999 7:36:00 PM
From: rupert1  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 97611
 
Aitch: I've looked at the PW report again.

From March 16 through March 19, 1999, we conducted a proprietary survey on PC demand within the SMB market

This is not enough time to have done a thorough survey. They don't justify their sample, identify the respondents, or even their geographical areas: they do give the questions they asked but the questions were not rigorous in providing criteria to compare responses. The value of the responses cannot be assessed because we do not know who was asked within the company, and their awareness or otherwise of IT issues, budgets and spending plans. It appears that the survey was conducted only among US companies, which is atypical of the international market on YK2 issues.

Our data indicates that most of the SMBs resolved the majority of their Y2K needs in 1998, driving PC spending for the year. Two key data points support this conclusion including: (1) 62% of the firms surveyed expect their PC spending to be down or flat in 1999 versus 1998. (2) The Y2K impact is expected to be much less of a driving force behind PC spending in 1999, as 69% of the firms indicated that Y2K WOULD NOT impact their 1999 PC spending.

If these "findings" are correct they suggest the following conclusions. (1) 38% of the firms surveyed said their PC spending will be higher in 1999 versus 1998. (2) 31% said that YK2 would impact their 1999 PC spending. Not a bad base to start with, then add all those who don't yet realise they have a YK2 problem.

Only 37% of the firms felt that PC spending would increase in 1999, from the prior year, while 11% felt that spending would be flat.

37% is a big "only" and 48 1/2% flat or higher is a big percentage to start with.

The primary driver noted for PC spending in 1999 is growth
of business, at 57% of those surveyed, followed by upgrades (including Y2K), at 37%, and pricing, at 6%.


If these "findings" are correct, and if the respondents are correct, then PC growth is very healthy for other than YK2 causes: YK2 is additional.

we surveyed 35 firms, from a variety of industries and geographic
locations.


Not enough, and which firms and who in these firms?

We were surprised to find that after only a few responses, a trend emerged......

Folks, this was not a survey in any normal sense of the word - it was a thesis.

Do you need to do anything further to prepare your company for Y2K?

Yes: 69%
No: 31%


And this is consistent with the other findings?

They opposed their findings to statements made by COMPAQ and DELL and other companies. Why make no reference to the US Congress Task Force on YK2 compliance which has done a huge survey and which recently stated that 50% of small companies have done nothing, and of the other 50% about 30% have done only a partial job on YK2 compliance. It also pointed out that business in other countries, in general, are at a much lower state of readiness than the US.