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Technology Stocks : Nortel Networks (NT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cruiser who wrote (2312)	3/27/1999 11:08:00 AM
From: Paul Fine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14638

Posted by me in Yahoo: NT closed the week at exactly 1/8th point above where it peaked last week on Thursday($62 vs $61 7/8). So for all the market gyrations, NT finished where it began. Yes, there was an opportunity for screen-watching daytraders to do some quick inand outs, but for those of us holding longer-term, the week was a non-event. We still sit in the same trading range we have been in for almost two months now($60, +/- 5%). As I have said repeatedly, there is no reason to expect a breakout from this range for more than a intraday trade or two until the market gets a solid feel for this quarter's earnings report. And given the statement Roth made a few weeks ago for the Lehman Bros report, I would say they have it. NT will make the numbers, with weakness in Enterprise(old Bay) and PBX offset by strength elsewhere. No big upside potential means no big move in the stock. One caveat; the weakness in Bay may not be fully known at the time the Roth statement was made. In the past few years, old Bay made predictions of this qtrs sales in early March and then missed them by a bunch due to heavy skewing of expected sales into the last few weeks/days. Don't know if the new NT mgmt has better accounting controls and communication with Sales mgmt to know the true scoop vs the "hope and pray" rev number. A surprise here that causes a miss of the total NT EPS would be very negative to the stock price. That said, fulfillment of the expected EPS($.33/share) and good rev growth, plus a rosy forecast in the conf call(with particular attention to whether the Bay segment will rebound soon) could move NT up to the high $60's. I would think it could take until mid-late May to break through and hold a new high($70+), as analysts wait to see how the NEXT qtr is playing out. As always, one man's opinion. Paul