To: keith massey who wrote (2650 ) 3/27/1999 6:52:00 PM From: keith massey Respond to of 4467
Just a word on why I put a lot of emphasis on TA. Technical analysts argue that since the most knowledgeable participants are actively trading in the markets, the current price trend is the most accurate assessment of future supply and demand. If someone is correct that for fundamental reasons, prices will likely move up strongly in the future, the participants who have the greatest knowledge and influence on the markets should certainly be moving the price upward right now. If price instead is moving down, a lot of very knowledgeable people must think price in the future will likely be down, not up. In his classic book, Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets, famous analyst John Murphy summarizes the rationale for technical analysis: "The technician believes that anything that can possibly affect market price--fundamental, political, psychological or otherwise--is actually reflected in the price. It follows, therefore, that a study of price action is all that is required. By studying price charts and supporting technical indicators, the technician lets the market tell him which way it is most likely to go. The chartist knows there are reasons why markets go up and down. He just doesn't believe that knowing what those reasons are is necessary." However I would also argue that knowing what is driving the trend using fundamental analysis and thread hype can give you better insight into how powerful the trend you are observing is and how long it might continue. It can also give you a lot more comfort in taking a position which I find helps me sleep a lot better. Just some food for thought KEITH