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Technology Stocks : Broadcast.com (Acquired by Yahoo) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sam who wrote (972)	3/27/1999 1:08:00 PM
From: radames	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1260

regarding the rumored buyout of .85 ,how does this translate into the price of the stock,,my personal belief is that this stock is going to soar next week because of the potential of a bidding war between nbc.yhoo,and aol ,i personally believe the future of the internet is an entertainment outlet as opposed to an information outlet and i think this company will be a leader .

To: sam who wrote (972)	3/28/1999 12:18:00 AM
From: B. A. Marlow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1260

To sam, radames, howard and friends of BCST, some angles: YHOO 0.85/share conversion ratio is just a rumor. Problem is, it tends to look "official." First, we can't even assume that YHOO will be BCST's acquirer. The potential list of suitors is as long as your arm, and there are some dark horses out there, not to mention AOL. TWX? CBS? ATHM? Paul Allen/Vulcan Ventures? Bertlesmann? Softbank (maybe in conjunction with YHOO)? YHOO closed Friday at $171.375. Using a conversion ratio of 0.85 per YHOO share, you get a value of $145.66875 per BCST share. Call it $145.625. This figure is well above the $110-130 price range that has been circulating in the press, and slightly above (buy-side) analyst Steve Harmon's recent minimum valuation of $138.44. It is, however, somewhat below my own expectation of a minimum takeout value of $150 per BCST share, or about $5B (assuming a stock deal). Importantly, I believe the current BCST takeout price range circulating in the media could be a leak whose purpose is to lower expectations and prevent any LCOS-like controversy when a deal is imminently announced. That way, the acquisition can be presented as a material premium over BCST's current trading price and create terrific "buzz." If BCST and its acquirer can shake off the LCOS blues, the Net sector will rock! (Incidentally, not worried about LCOS, either; it will work out. Short LCOS puts.) So the 0.85 per YHOO share can only be the by-product of assumptions and has no direct credibility. Still, a deal could work out to 0.85 under certain circumstances. I have no special knowledge of any facts and no access to inside information. I could have been wrong about BCST all along. I could be wrong now. But I'm putting my money where my mouth is, so you can conclude I have...conviction. Just one more thought. At Friday's closing price of $110.50, BCST is discounting the low expectations proffered by the media. As recently as Thursday after the close, an analyst appearing on CNBC (Bruce Smith of Jeffries, I believe) called BCST a "trophy." That's why, at $110.50, it's a "buy." Nah, it's a gift! BAM

To: sam who wrote (972)	3/28/1999 1:04:00 AM
From: B. A. Marlow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1260

Thanks, sam. Not so smart, but a good listener. Actually, many, many people understand all of the technology and its implications. Not exactly rocket science, but a bit murky. Ironically, though, most of the propeller heads are not investors posting on SI. That's where we come in. If individual investors can at least see how the pieces of the puzzle fit together--and consider their business implications--then we can develop the traction to have confidence in the future. BCST is the Pied Piper of that future. As we know too well, it takes conviction to commit to a company with a P/S ratio of say, 140, and that won't report a profit for another year. As if that weren't enough, one has to deal with the question of why anyone can't easily do what BCST does. Well, anyone can, and good luck to 'em! But it ain't easy, it costs plenty, and BCST already has 65,000 hours of content and say, a million unique daily visitors. Finally, unlike an AMZN or an EBAY, BCST isn't intuitively obvious. It's not a retailer or shopping mall; it's an arms merchant. Takes some digging to "get" its business plan. Most excruciating is that the Street has offered little guidance. The "Wise" have had months to figure out BCST, and it looks like they've been "streaming" in the wind. Only now are they jumping aboard, palms sweating. Soon they'll be taking credit for "discovering" BCST! But hey, you can't say they didn't "let you in!" Let's get to your "red light" question. What's looming on the horizon is...scale. BCST could go it alone, but it couldn't grow horizontally, vertically and geographically as fast as the Net wants it to. Thus, we recognize that the pioneering chapter has ended and look to a new world order. As part of a larger army, BCST can lead the charge. Thanks for the comments on SEPR. BAM