To: articwarrior who wrote (41050 ) 3/28/1999 12:15:00 AM From: SliderOnTheBlack Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
articwarrior; Elephantine Fields..... & OIL Their Thailand Gas holdings are the positive - if I remember correctly this is the only asset that received any interest when Triton openly marketed themselves last year. I have no axe to grind with OIL other than they have been singled out on more than one occassion as having not just bad management, but the ''worst'' management in the entire industry - I don't care if there is a sign that says ''Prudhoe Bay II'' in their backyard - when the Street has so little respect for management; they'll never receive fair value anytime soon imho - hence nearterm; I'm not interested . HEC & SEV also set on elephantine fields - the Colombian plays all look great on paper, but as the cash keeps getting burned, and disappointment, after disappoinment continues to develop; it appears that the timeframe and the costs of bringing these elephantine fields to profitable production is longer, and more expensive than anticipated. In Colombia; dry holes, dilution and cash burn seem to be the theme of late. HEC has (had) a strong cash position and SEV has the mo-mo following and is a proven trading opportunity. but, imho - the Street is sour on OIL and that ''aint'' changing anytime soon - so if the Street won't run it up; it doesn't matter how enticing the story is... there are just better plays imho. - I'd rather own LUKOY than OIL for a value play; or a blown off micro-cap, or an oversold high debt/leveraged company that represents an asset play like OEI/SGO... just my opinion. One of these Colombian plays will hit sooner, or later - no one disputes that the Oil is there; the question is how long will it take, how much will it cost and at what level of dilution to current shareholders - ala~ all the convertible issues etc... so imho; the risk/reward to the probable return is not as good as some other options. If I ''had'' to choose one; I like HEC longterm; SEV as the trader and would pass on OIL entirely... why bother with OIL - when on any hint of good news, SEV moves (could be an easy double soon - I love it for trading) and HEC has better management and fundamentals...? Bottomline on OIL; the major Oil companies that are in Colombia, that know the story; had the opportunity to buy OIL at the bottom of the market - and they passed; I have to respect that... This may be a great value play and it certainly isn't expensive - but I just see better risk/rewards plays. Good Luck though - someone's going to hit sooner or later...maybe it will be OIL ?