To: Bill Martin who wrote (5957 ) 3/28/1999 12:08:00 PM From: Lee Respond to of 9256
Bill, re: "Yes, but... The real question is who benefits? " E-commerce requires an open corporate infrastructure able to communicate at high speeds. Early adapter end customers with a strong technology base like Schwab are benefiting today. I think next down the line you will see the servers, storage and middleware makers benefit as corporate customers increasingly try to leverage their existing base on which they just spent big bucks making y2k compliant. For drive makers this may in fact be a slow down phase, as CIO do not have a clear picture of the future. Software enablers, especially those with strong skills in the data transfer and interchange layer will benefit. A new powerhouse may be born in this segment. The proceeding phase will again go to the makers of servers and storage. Likely because small companies that went all new technology will force the hands of old corporate who based decisions on cost rather than throughput. These trailing companies will now go with phase two system upgrades. The key to these first two phases is to link the big units, B2B, not the point users like you or I. By phase 3 it will be clearer what tools our business people and retail technology customers will require. I expect the clumsy browser will not be the center point and data streaming will have greater acceptance. The need to have portable non-attached devices will drive storage demand. It's unclear if it will be disks. Of course, we need investment advice for today. Due to the prevailing uncertainty in the marketplace, out of fear and ego people will spend more money than required. Middleware vendors might be the best big bang choice, followed by storage. And look for the ramp in PC sales once the corporate video network ramps. All my rambling opinion. Cheers, Lee