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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: EPS who wrote (26321)	3/28/1999 9:51:00 AM
From: EPS	Respond to of 42771

Customers have what are called architectural freezes. They will not introduce a new piece of architecture into an existing system after a certain date, which is typically between March and August of this year. And then they will lift that freeze after January or February of 2000. That is part of the reason that it was so important for NetWare 5 to get shipped last year. Dr. E.S.

To: EPS who wrote (26321)	3/28/1999 11:29:00 AM
From: P. Ramamoorthy	Respond to of 42771

Victor - Thanks for the article from Worth. Interesting! Ram

To: EPS who wrote (26321)	3/28/1999 12:15:00 PM
From: Spartex	Respond to of 42771

Message 8559523 BANDWIDTH: INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN THE "DIGITAL PIPE" It was only 50 years ago the first commercial mainframe computer was developed. Twenty years since the desktop personal computer first appeared. And just a few years since the commercialization of the Internet. Incredibly, some claim the volume of Internet traffic is doubling every 100 days or so. "In many ways, we are today at the place the industrial revolution was 100 years ago," says Nathan Myhrvold, chief technology officer at Microsoft. "It is like it was 1898. If you opened up the [London Financial Times] on this day in 1898, you would have thought the industrial revolution had already happened. Yet in retrospect, it had only just begun." Highlighting the exploding digital age is the fact that data traffic over traditional telephone lines is growing 10 times faster than voice traffic. William Magill, telecommunications analyst for NationsBanc Montgomery Securities, forecasts that total data traffic will surpass voice traffic on telephone lines sometime between 2000 and 2002. E-Commerce Growth Staggering And electronic commerce transactions over the Internet will grow with the traffic. Frank Gens, Senior Vice-president of International Data Corp., predicts that "there will be a massive growth of business transacted on the Web. About a 40-fold increase in the next five years worldwide, with a 50-fold increase expected in Europe." E-commerce will account for about 1% of the global economic activity by 2002. The number of on-line shoppers is growing at a breakneck pace -- the number is expected to swell from 10 million in 1997 to over 23 million this year - while expenditures will go from $2 billion to over $11 billion in those same time periods. Some analysts go as far as to predict that electronic commerce will grow to more than $300 billion in the next five years. Regardless of the forecast used, the projected growth is staggering. The annual PricewaterhouseCoopers Technology Forecast predicts that electronic commerce is expected to reach critical mass over the next three years, opening up a global market for exploitation. Improved security, Internet access, and easy-to-use electronic commerce applications will quickly prompt all businesses to adopt Internet marketing strategies. Bandwidth A Major Issue But lack of bandwidth - the amount of data a line can carry - is forecast by many to limit Internet growth. While less than 1% of households enjoy high- speed access now, almost 20% of all U.S. households will enjoy high-speed access to the Web by 2002 according to IDC. Inktomi, the Silicon Valley start-up company run by David Peterschmidt, reasons that while annual bandwidth demand is increasing tenfold on average, annual bandwidth supply is rising only by a factor of three. George Gilder, technology pundit who has written extensively about the impact of bandwidth, has noted that the growth in bandwidth is outpacing "Moore's Law" - yet is still falling behind demand. Software can speed Internet traffic flow in some cases by intelligently storing or "caching" frequently-requested information closer to the user. By minimizing redundant traffic, this software increases effective bandwidth. The traditional copper, or "twisted pair" connection, can be upgraded to increase the rate of data flow - but most experts agree with NationsBanc's Magill when he notes that "fiber-optic networks, with far greater capacity than traditional copper-wire networks, are the only logical way for telecommunications companies to meet the bandwidth demands generated by the exploding use of the Internet." Fiber-optic technology is based on the transmission of laser light through transparent fibers of glass or plastic. Optical fibers have a number of features that make them superior to systems using traditional copper cables. Fiber carries laser light with little signal strength attenuation (1% over 78 miles) resulting in longer cable run distances. Fiber has less susceptibility to noise and no susceptibility to transient voltages or impulses, such as lightning strikes. Further, a fiber-optic cable can transmit data at speeds of 40 billion bits per second compared with 1.5 million bits per second for copper cables. * Billions to be Spent for Upgrades The demand for telecommunications infrastructure improvements to handle Internet-related data traffic is "creating a multi-billion dollar opportunity for component and equipment providers" according to telecommunications analyst Magill. He adds that this growth represents a "multi- billion dollar opportunity" for telecom component and equipment suppliers. A recent study found that companies will invest up to $23.6 billion by 2002 to upgrade Internet e-commerce systems. One other trend worth noting. Dr. David C. Nagel, AT&T's Chief Technology Officer, recently stated that "the telecommunications industry is restructuring itself in much the same way as the computer industry did 20 or 30 years ago. . . . Companies did everything from manufacturing their own equipment to supplying telephone services, but now the model is of flatter organizations concentrating mainly on providing access networks." In this competitive market a lot of tasks are being outsourced to third parties while the telecom company concentrates on its core competencies. ========================================== Didn't Nagel from ATT appear or speak at a keynote session during BrainShare? Management of bandwidth and proxy caching is where's its at and so is Eric! Keep the flow of ZEN's into THE PIPE! GO!