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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frodo Baxter who wrote (5968)	3/28/1999 5:54:00 AM
From: Z Analyzer	Respond to of 9256

<<Whoa! Haven't thought of that. If there is a dbl booking issue, it would have a huge effect going fwd. History suggests this would cause catastrophic earnings model changes for Hutch, just like it had for Seagate and DLT.>> Not nearly so bad since you don't have distribution channels stuffed full of suspesions. Also, in HTCH's 20 to 30% excess demand scenario they felt they were conservatively backing out what they felt to be double booking. The inventory stash might have been a surprise but you wouldn't expect it to be too large. Maybe this is why somebody panicked Friday however. -Z

To: Frodo Baxter who wrote (5968)	3/28/1999 9:39:00 PM
From: Mark Oliver	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

<Whoa! Haven't thought of that. If there is a dbl booking issue, it would have a huge effect going fwd. History suggests this would cause catastrophic earnings model changes for Hutch, just like it had for Seagate and DLT. It appears that TSA is widely accepted as a necessary improvement. Wires don't work and flex circuits aren't winning anywhere except Seagate and that maybe open to change. Fujitsu has gone their own way with an internally developed head interconnect that may or may not be very expensive and that they may or may not be willing to share with competition. So, if you accept that TSA is the best solution and that the majority of drives will use it, then it becomes a question of Hutch ramping supply to satisfy this growing demand. Until now, few programs could afford to design in TSA as the supply wasn't available. Once supply frees up, demand will quickly follow as manufacturers feel it's safe to build TSA dependent drives. So, I believe any double ordering today will be short a lived memory as market shifts to wide acceptance of TSA. As negative as this announcement has been, it surely signals that TSA is ready and anyone who wants it can get all they need. Regards, Mark