Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (9333)	3/28/1999 7:49:00 PM
From: Les H	Respond to of 99985

Greg Nie For: March 26, 1999 NEXT UPDATE: MONDAY, APRIL 5TH We look for the market to plod through the end of the quarter, likely mired in the trendless pattern prevalent since early February. Overbought/oversold oscillators are a prime example of the short-term technical quandary: 10-day TRIN: .93 (between neutral and overbought) 30-day TRIN: .91 Stocks over 10-week moving average: 35.7% (30% considered oversold) Stocks over 30-week moving average: 38.4% As we enter the second quarter, it is imperative that the bulls produce powerful tape action for rallies to be successful. Momentum has been the question from January 1st for the bulls. The answers to that question in the first quarter were inadequate. Entering the second quarter, rally attempts will be burdened from beginning to end by serious technical flaws and non-confirmations, especially in terms of breadth indicators. In other words, the excuses for profit-taking are already in place before the rally even starts. The standard for excellence in 1999 is dynamically positive breadth, like a 2:1 if not 3:1 positive ratio, and trading volume of 900 million or more on the Big Board and OTC volume of 1.1 billion or more. In our estimation the stakes are very high. Success means a potential move to Dow 10,500 or so, based on the relationship of the Dow to its 200-day moving average. Historically, major moves can reach a level 18% or more above that moving average before sustainability becomes an issue. Today's calculation is Dow 10,470 and beginning to move up more rapidly. Failure could be big trouble as the tremendous increase in trading activity two years running without major price advances will give credence to the word "distribution", a polite technical term for making a top after four years of superior performance. SPX: 1289.99