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To: Keith A Walker who wrote (44487)	3/28/1999 10:34:00 AM
From: wily	Respond to of 53903

PC DEMAND Here's a clip of a Paine Weber report from the Compaq thread via the AMD thread: Message 8568311 Portion of the report: * Our data indicates that most of the SMBs resolved the majority of their Y2K needs in 1998, driving PC spending for the year. Two key data points support this conclusion including: (1) 62% of the firms surveyed expect their PC spending to be down or flat in 1999 versus 1998. (2) The Y2K impact is expected to be much less of a driving force behind PC spending in 1999, as 69% of the firms indicated that Y2K WOULD NOT impact their 1999 PC spending. * We believe the SMB market is an important component/indicator of PC demand, as this sector represented an estimated 41% of unit shipments and 43% of total revenues among the top 10 vendors in 1998. * Based on the results of the SMB survey, we are lowering our 1999 forecast for PC unit growth within the SMB sector from 17% to 5% and, in turn, decreasing our total 1999 PC unit growth forecast from 14% to 9%............ * We recommend that clients underweigh PC hardware manufacturers, as a recovery in PC demand appears unlikely over the next several quarters. Since the beginning of 1999, we have reduced our annual estimates for CPQ, DELL, HWP, and MUEI to reflect our concerns of slower PC demand. The results of our SMB survey suggest that our estimates may still prove to be too aggressive.

To: Keith A Walker who wrote (44487)	3/28/1999 11:51:00 AM
From: Skeeter Bug	Respond to of 53903

keith, yes, that is true. that has been true for some time. keep in mind that the dram players MASSIVELY increase unit output to stay ahead of the cost curve. i still think supply is well ahead of demand. i'd like to stress what i believe is a key point. the dram market won't turn until people are truly negative on it - and i'm not talking about a month, either. why? the companies are greedy and the WORST thing they could do now is miss the next BOOM. if everyone thinks the next boom is around the corner then they buy equipment like their is no tomorrow. when the boom doesn't appear... it is nasty... we need to move these execs away from greed and into fear before the market turns. we are closer than a year ago... but we also have a long way to go... look at them ramp equipment purchases...