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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Razorbak who wrote (9971)	3/28/1999 3:14:00 PM
From: golden_tee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27311

Here is an excerpt from some discussion that I was having on Wexler's site. Don't go there without a clothespin on your nose, incidentally. I thought that since I wasted an hour compiling it, someone here might find it of interest. End of day Friday is what is important. My analysis of reading the last 40 minutes of the ticker yields a different conclusion: 11,800 were buys 20,600 were sells 9,300 are not clear.which are equally likely to be either 41,700 total in the last 41 minutes. Ignoring the unclears, the imbalance was 8,800 shares to the sell side. Since the NASDAQ double counts, the "25K to go" was closer to 4400 to go. Hardly explains the $.68/share drop. Even if we assume that all unclears were sells, that huge seller would have sold just 9,050 shares. The MM's own inventory would be used to fill the entire block. It is unlikely that they would have zero inventory on a stock that routines trades 200k to 300k shares. Lets examine the 3 "interesting periods" in the last 40 minutes: 15:21 to 15:29 -43 trades Start 7 3/8 - 7 7/16 End 7 1/8 - 7 5/16 Buys, 2100, sells 13,300, unclear 5000 Imbalance 11,200 Worst case - 16,200 Best case - 6,200 Imbalance 5,600 Worst case - 8,100 Best case - 3,100 (actual) Effect - bid price drops $.25 15:30 to 15:53 - 1 trade (a buy) Effect MM's change to 7 3/16 - 7 5/16 15:53 to 15:60 -34 trades Start 7 3/16 - 7 5/16 End 6 3/4 - 6 15/16 Imbalance 2,200 Worst case - 6,600 Best case - -2100 Imbalance 1,100 Worst case - 3,300 Best case - -1050 (actual) Effect - 7/16 drop on the bid Summary $11/16 ($.68) drop on the bid due to selling of: Imbalance 6,650 Worst case - 11,350 Best case - 2,000 shares The bid price dropped $.68/share due to selling of 6,650 shares? It didn't take much selling to move the price down a lot, did it? "Whacking the bid" - no question. "25k to go" theory, there weren't that many shares sold. Sells were strategic to manipulate the price downward by providing a supply imbalance. Not only that, apparently the manipulator is a small fry. Expect a nice pop Monday a.m.