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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GraceZ who wrote (7062)	3/28/1999 8:36:00 PM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

This reminds me of the real estate market during the '80s. When asked why real estate would continue up indefinitely, the real estate investor would say, "where else can you put money", and then they would go through some explanation similar to what you said. If challenged on their points, they would have a reliable reply. It was, "they aren't making any more land, you know". As for all these foreigners pouring their dough into US securities, I ask you what you will do when they start pouring it out? It is a well-known recurrence that the foreigners are the bag holders, the last ones to buy the bull and the last to sell the bear. Traders have to be careful because all the signs will look good to go contrary to the trend when these unbelievables come in to sink their ship and those of topnotch speculators. You can be too good in this business and the only defense is patience. There was strong foreign buying in July '98 and strong selling in October '98, but that may have been caused by currency moves in large part. The biggest flows from Japan came from commercial banks which were using the money base supplied by the BOJ, to quietly flee to safety before the storm. They did this because they had no confidence in Japan. When the yen reversed in September the foreigners including Japanese commercial banks sold dollar denominated assets which created the fifth count downside bottom on Oct 8. Those commercial banks felt they couldn't trust their own people. They will trust as long as things go well. Things will go well as long as our FED pumps and props up their economy and US protectionism is derailed by Congress. The problem is that the structural nature of Japan's neo-mercantilistic trading oriented economy is not changing to reflect the reality that they can't compete against other Asia. So eventually Japan will revert back to where they were in '98 and the FED will have an inflation problem developing so that they won't be able to bail out Japan. Then the hot commercial bank money won't find shelter in the dollar, it will have to go elsewhere. Where is a topic for another thread. Traders never represent two cents out of a dollar. The entire non-institutional public represents 10 cents. The institutions are pretty much all the rest. The institutions create the major trends and the public and traders provide the price determining noise at the margin. The public action is zero sum. There is no net effect. It is purely Gaussian distributed. The end half of a bull trend is created by the institutional buying around the top. The first half of a bear market is caused by institutions buying and public selling even though the public action is marginal. The other two phases are essentially the complement of the above two states, but these differences aren't significant. It's never important to know who is doing what, it is only somewhat interesting what is being done.