To: ezmoney who wrote (10563 ) 3/28/1999 10:09:00 PM From: 2MAR$ Respond to of 15987
Here's a commentary that might shed light on China and the week ahead: Looking ahead we see a very volatile week staring us in the face. As is always the case when Alan Greenspan meets with the FOMC concerning interest rates..all ears are glued to him, and they even try and decipher any hints he may be giving about the Feds "stance". He is meeting on Tuesday, so some odd trading will be in store for us through Tuesday. Let me explain this stance thing so you all understand what I am talking about. The street hates interest rate hikes and for a number of reasons. But lets suffice it to say that interest rate hikes are one of the worst things the market can hear, so when the man in charge of the committee that actually does the changes speaks...everyone listens. So the Street listens even closer than you may think, and they try and perceive his "stance" or bias, to see if he is "leaning" toward cutting, raising or staying neutral. It is amazing that even if he says "no hike" but is perceived to be leaning that way for the next meeting...the street will panic and sell off. Likewise if his "stance" is neutral or they cannot perceive any leaning this way or that..they will take his declaration (either up, down or unchanged) and trade upon that. So remember that bias is just as important as what he actually says! So the question is...what will he do? Since I am not shy about predicting the outcome of FOMC meetings, and have gotten the past 15, or 16 right (I admit I have lost track of exactly how many) I will say that again this time there will be NO change in rates, BUT his stance will again be of a strange nature. Here is the deal.. Greenspan has done his job so well, that as of this point his "models" about how the economy works and what is needed to sustain it do not work any more! This is a fact and he has said so many times. The thinking used to be that if we had tons of people working that would pressure companies into raising prices..hence inflation...hence a slowdown , etc.. This has proven NOT to be the case. We have extremely low unemployment, virtually no inflation, and our economy is pretty robust. With Bond rates being where they are, and the economy doing so well, true interest rates are still actually higher than necessary! So until something changes I don't think he will upset the Apple cart by making a change that he cannot predict the outcome of. Another interesting note is that Globally the worlds economy needs interest rates in the US both stable and low. A raise here would snuff out any chances of Asia or even Latin America making any strong comebacks. Greenspan knows this too, and won't take the chance of screwing up the worlds "rebounds". So...I predict that for this meeting he will do nothing to rates at this time but will use strong language that he is prepared to suggest a raise if it becomes necessary. He has to say that because if he just came right out and said " NO hikes and I don't think we will need one any time soon" the market would go nuts and gain 1000 points in a day. He wouldn't like that at all, so to prevent the markets from overheating he will use language to keep it in check. He will mention that he is closely monitoring everything from productivity to wages, and if the need arises he will be quick to raise rates. An interesting note to all this is that there is a good likely hood that the next couple of FOMC meetings may have to deal with the fact that we need a rate cut! There are a number of reasons why I say that and we have a lot of time before then to talk about it, but keep that in the back of your mind. So with him looming on the near horizon we have to figure that the markets will be choppy. On top of that we are soon to be in earnings season and that always brings its own strange kid of volatility with it. For the next week or so we think that the market will stay in a fairly tight trading range, but once we actually enter earnings season for good...we should start to march up from there. Fundamentally we haven't had much change in things to keep us from rising, and I think they will use earnings as a springboard to begin buying again. "Prewarning" season is about done, and the usual thinking is that "if you haven't warned, you are doing okay." Once that actually comes true and some leadership stocks announce decent earnings, I tend to think that we will move up again. Having said that there is one area of concern that we have to take into account and that is China. For the most part Asia (Japan, Korea, Pacific rim countries) have showed obvious signs of a rebound. China hasn't. In fact there is a good possibility that China will bow to the pressure and have to devalue their currency one day and if that does happen...all bets are off as far as where we are headed. China's main province of export has shown very dismal numbers, and when a country as powerful as them gets into enough trouble that their currency bust be devalued...the surrounding nations and indeed the global economy is going to get whacked. So as long as China does not make a move, I see the US market moving higher during earnings and after. If China devalues...we are in a heap of short term trouble. (doesn't that always happen? Just when its time to move up and over, something shows up to concern us?) For tomorrow We think we could see decent day as most analysts agree that there will not be a rate hike on Tuesday and managers who held off buying Friday could step up Monday. Tuesday is anyones guess as announcement day often swings both ways. In any case please be careful and watch for more wild mood swings as the markets try and prepare for this week. (one word of warning..If I am wrong and the analysts are wrong, and Greenspan blindsides us with a rate hike...we will fall