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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Mike Buckley who wrote (861)3/28/1999 9:04:00 PM
From: John Carragher  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54805
 
mike wsj on Monday identifies more entries into mobile-phone market.

The cost of these phones should drop significantly along with margins.

Business and Finance - Asia

Taiwan Firms Hear a Calling
In the Mobile-Phone Market

By RUSSELL FLANNERY
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

TAIPEI, Taiwan -- Local companies that rank as the world's third-biggest makers of computer
equipment hope they'll soon connect with consumers in a new market: mobile phones.

The island's manufacturers are aiming to break into a rapidly expanding mobile-phone market that
grew 51% to 162 million units globally in 1998, according to Dataquest Inc., a research unit of
U.S.-based Gartner Group Inc. Sales will stay brisk because of falling prices, rapid changes in
functions and technology, and rising demand for mobile communications, says Peter Richardson,
principal analyst for mobile communications at Dataquest in London.

To be sure, Taiwan companies probably won't be much of a threat to the three industry leaders --
Nokia Corp. of Finland, Motorola Inc. of the U.S., and Telefon AB L.M. Ericsson of Sweden --
which last year controlled about 57% of the world's mobile-phone market. Yet the island's makers
are part of a group of industry newcomers that "buck the trend in recent years of attrition" among
mobile-phone suppliers with a low market share, Mr. Richardson says. "There's plenty of
opportunity" for the smaller players these days because exploding growth in mobile-phone
shipments makes it hard for even savvy multinationals to serve every market, he says.

Eager Newcomers

At least four Taiwan companies are looking to secure a toehold in the industry. Arima Corp., which
last year supplied about US$1 billion of notebook computers to U.S.-based Compaq Computer
Corp., said this month that it plans to invest in a new company this year that will produce mobile
phones. GVC Corp., a maker of computer equipment that already had some small-scale
mobile-phone shipments last year, said this month that it hopes to raise output to as many as
800,000 units in 1999.

And Acer Peripherals Inc., after about five years of limited production, plans to make about one
million mobile phones this year, and double that in 2000, says a spokesman for the 35%-owned
affiliate of computer maker Acer Inc. DGTEL Inc., which already makes wireless phones for
AT&T Corp., said this month that it won an order to produce one million mobile phones for
Motorola.

Taiwan has been mostly a no-show in the mobile-phone industry, in part because at one time the
authorities didn't encourage the spread of wireless-communications technology on national-security
grounds, says Yeh Yung-tai, a telecommunications industry analyst at the Market Intelligence
Center, or MIC, an industry-backed research organization. The legacy of that policy is a shortage
of local engineers familiar with key telecommunications technology, industry executives say.

Efforts to Diversify

Yet times have changed. Taiwan's high-tech manufacturers, favored by multinational computer
companies for their ability to adapt new products quickly and their willingness to accept thin profit
margins, are now looking to diversify into mobile phones as the personal computer business
becomes more cutthroat than ever.

They have a reasonable chance to succeed because of their manufacturing expertise, the willingness
of overseas companies to license low-end know-how as products upgrade quickly, and the overall
sharp growth in demand for mobile phones in Asia, especially in China, analysts say. "This year
may bring some real developments and be a starting point for Taiwan," says Mr. Yeh of MIC.

Companies most likely to make a mark this year include Acer Peripherals, because it can take
advantage of the brand-name recognition built up by its affiliate Acer Inc. in the computer market,
and because it's now been experimenting with mobile-phone technology for years, analysts say.
Acer Peripherals projects that its mobile-phone sales this year may hit as much as 3 billion New
Taiwan dollars (US$90.6 million), or roughly 10% of its total revenue, says company spokesman
Eric Yu. He didn't say how much they would add to profit.

Other companies may focus more exclusively on the strategy that's paid off for the island in the
computer business: contract manufacturing. GVC, which is already selling some phones in the
region and is looking for contract orders from a bigger multinational, sees a chance that Taiwan
may be able to work with global mobile-phone giants in the same way it works with multinational
makers of notebook computers.

"There are similarities between this and notebook computers," a GVC spokesman says. "Taiwan's
infrastructure is improving. More customers are asking us questions about making mobile phones.
This trend won't change."

Support From Customers

For newcomers, some of the benefits of working as an offshore supplier are the possibility of
obtaining technology and manufacturing support from customers. They don't have to spend much
on brand promotion, long a Taiwan weakness.

"Anyone can come into the market with a product," says Dataquest's Mr. Richardson. Brand
perception and product design are also key to winning mobile-phone sales, however, and "that's
where the new players aren't very well positioned to compete," he says.

With growth in global mobile phones so rapid last year, Taiwan isn't alone in sizing up the
telecommunications market. Suppliers of components such as printed circuit boards also are trying
to become suppliers to big telecommunications multinationals or even Taiwan companies that are
trying to break into the business, says John Brebeck, an analyst at Jardine Fleming Taiwan
Securities.

"It's a market that the Taiwanese could get a lot more share of, and a market they will get more of,"
he says.



To: Mike Buckley who wrote (861)3/28/1999 10:40:00 PM
From: Brian K Crawford  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 54805
 
Mike, great series of posts on QCOM. I get the feeling you have only scratched the surface. If only the weeks were 8 days long, and the day job was 4 days...:-)

I too have watched the Q for several years. I did buy and sell it twice for profit, but had to endure a couple of bouncy rides through disappointing earnings announcements and, honestly, got worn out with trying to sort out who was winning in the alphabet soup of standards, the legal wrangling over patents, and the nationalistic pride PR blitz factor that was ever present among the US, Finland, and Sweden based manufacturers.

The effort to sort out QCOM's income statement is formidable, and I wish you well on your search. Over the last few years, they were doing deeply discounted infrastructure sales contracts, (and providing long-term financing for same), in order to get their CDMA standard out there. Big sales growth, low profits. They also had phone manufacturing in their own shops, plus the joint venture with Sony that you referred to. Also big sales growth. They have substantial ASICs sales and a services/consulting business unit that works on CDMA system installs around the world. And of course, that sweet and growing royalties stream on the CDMA handsets sold by the other manufacturers.

I think Gilder's assessment is short, to the point, and may be in the right direction: QCOM can be "the Intel of wireless communications".

To me, that standard setter position would include those 100% margin royalties, and manufacturing (subcontracting?) ASICs and other chips/chipsets. Probably includes a substantial business in services/consulting to those licensees doing the system buildouts and handset sales around the world.

The past quarterly reports show QCOM has not been very profitable as a manufacturer of handsets or infrastructure. Meanwhile Nokia, Motorola, and Ericcson are all well established in the world wireless infrastructure and handset markets. I think selling phone manufacturing to Ericcson in exchange for a royalty stream was a wonderful move for QCOM.

If QCOM can concentrate on CDMA enabling hardware in volume, stay away from the phone manufacturing business, and can keep the others from end running their patents, and can keep the CDMA standard growing worldwide, maybe Gilder's Gorilla-like assessment is right on.

I remember a bear posting back in 1996 or 1997, when the debate on CDMA vs all the other standards was in high gear, something to this effect:

"When QCOM does make a profit, they go out and hire more PhD's and it all goes back into more R&D".

This has a ring of truth, from my limited experience. So our analysis of QCOM as a standard setting, cash gushing royalty machine has got to include an assessment of the business acumen of the top management, in addition to the strength of their patents and their technical/engineering wizardry.

QCOM Report Card:
I will be the first to admit I can't handicap the patent strength issue. Help!
Technical wizardry looks like an A+.
Businesss acumen I rate an incomplete.

That's enough of my sprinkling cold water on a hot situation. I am excited for QCOM management, and the capitulation of Ericcson is momentous.

I look forward with interest to your next posting and assessment of their prospects. I have no objection to buying in for a third ride, and maybe this one can be the most rewarding of all.

Best regards,

Brian



To: Mike Buckley who wrote (861)3/28/1999 10:50:00 PM
From: Uncle Frank  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 54805
 
Mike, please add my thanks to those you have already received on the qcom information you've been sharing with the thread. You made the following comment:

The other competitors offering their various twists on CDMA, not to mention competing GSM and TDMA technologies, are the big boys that John and others have mentioned. Every one of them is a customer of the Q, so it will be a double whammy if their competing technology wins out over Qualcomm's innovations of CMDA.


My understanding is that tdma is the older generation compression system used in digital cellular transmissions, and cdma is a radical improvement, more than doubling the number of calls a cell can handle simultaneously, but I am not clear on it's strengths versus gsm. Can anyone comment? I'll post this on the qcom thread as well and report back.

Frank