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Biotech / Medical : XOMA. Bull or Bear? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cacaito who wrote (9398)	3/28/1999 11:45:00 PM
From: aknahow	Respond to of 17367

Yes, I agree that what we have are the accruals. But the question really relates to can one calculate the p using just mortality? I also agree one can probably work backwards from the accruals to figure out various possible mortality totals. But I do think I see why starting with 130 or 200 accruals to calculate the target is not as correct as going directly to the mortality results which would give the desired p. Too bad I don't know how to do it. At any rate we will soon know. Murphy is not a villain. He is very bullish on XOMA and it continues to be one of his best new money buys. I think he provides insights of value and his letter serves as a device to narrow down the field.

To: Cacaito who wrote (9398)	3/29/1999 10:12:00 AM
From: aknahow	Respond to of 17367

Updated U.K. graph by region thru week 11 of last 3 years. Yes, I understand there is really nothing one can do with this information. phls.co.uk BY SERO TYPE phls.co.uk

To: Cacaito who wrote (9398)	3/29/1999 10:38:00 AM
From: aknahow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17367

Parsing, XOMA FAQ update: In the pivotal study we accrued most of our patients in the UK, where the total mortality rate has been lower. We don't with certainty know why, although public awareness of the disease is higher in the UK, which may mean that patients reach treatment more quickly. "the total mortality rate has been lower" Just as a reminder the trial includes patients only at 8 and above. While I do not know what the mortality rate currently is for this group it is possible that the total or overall mortality figure is misleading just as the Wisconsin study of 30 years of data indicated. Stratified data is the only data that would answer the question of what the real death rate is for those at 8-11 and 12-15. BTW CORR up sharply, real time quotes.