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To: GraceZ who wrote (7083)3/28/1999 10:56:00 PM
From: Benkea  Respond to of 29970
 
Grace:

"I was really just musing about where the money was coming from, not saying it was a good thing, in fact it scares the heck out of me."

Well here is a start to an answer:

"Margin debt currently amounts to more than 2 percent of all the disposable personal income in the United States. That's double the previous record, set in 1987, just before the crash."

chicagotribune.com



To: GraceZ who wrote (7083)3/28/1999 11:32:00 PM
From: ahhaha  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 29970
 
It seemed like you were musing where the money could go.

Around the top the most money is going in, but price is having a hard time advancing. This is called the dominance of the marginal supply state. When this is occurring you can actually measure that more and more money is moving stocks less and less. In economics it is called high elasticity with respect to marginal demand. Total demand may be higher than total supply, but price is determined at the margin where marginal supply and marginal demand are equal. If marginal demand instantaneously exceeds marginal supply, price rises, but currently such rise brings on more marginal supply than more marginal demand, so that the new and higher equilibrium price doesn't hold. When price falls instantaneously, the average increment of supply is less than the average increment of demand, but the intensity of instantaneous supply is far greater. This leads to a price equilibrium level slightly below the initial point though at an instant more demand is available. As the market explores the supply regimes above and discovers more supply will only be delivered at substantially higher prices, they participants back-off. They won't pay up. Next a supply regime develops. Back and forth it goes with no net evolution in price. Everyone gets bored and bummed.

The stock market in general is in this state, but ATHM is not. The increments of marginal demand still exceed marginal supply and when price falls instantaneously, the average increment of supply is less than the average increment of demand, but in contrast to the generals, the intensity of instantaneous demand is greater in intraday sell-offs. This state can change instantaneously, but won't as long as no one officially recognized in Wall Street says anything negative.