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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (9366)3/29/1999 2:04:00 AM
From: Smooth Drive  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99985
 
Hello Lee,

Thank you for the info.

>>Did you ever get your formula worked out to where it shows anything useful?<<

You know, we've talked about a number of different indicators and Excel formulas in the last couple of months (usually in PM's) and I'm not sure which one your referring to. <g> With your help and some other nice folks at SI and some reading material (especially TAofSC) I have gotten pretty good with long Excel formulas.

I see some discussion going on relative to interest rates. I liken interest rates to the carrot in front of the mule -- and the mule is the stock market. The Dow Jones Utility Average 2 X 6 P&F chart has just reversed down again. It's still on a bullish buy signal but it peaked back in Oct of 98.

322 X
320 X O
318 X O
316 X O X           *
314 X O X O         X *
312 X O X O     X   X O *
310 X O X O     X O C O   *         + < Bullish Resistance Line
308 A O X O     X O X 1 X   *     +
306 X O X O     X O X O X O   * +   X
304 X O X O X   B O   O X O   + *   X O
302 X O X O X O X *   O   O +   X * X O
300 X O   O X O X   *     O X   X O X O    
298 X *   O   O       *   2 X O X O X    
296 X   *               * O X O X O   + < Active Bullish Sup/Line
294 X     *               O X O X   +
292 X       *             O X O X +
290 X         *         + O X 3 +
288 X           *     +   O   + *
286 X             * +             *
284 X             + *               *
282 X           +     *               * < Bearish Support Line
280 X         +         *
278 X       +             * 
276 X     +                 *
274 X   +                     *
272 X +                         *
270 +                             * < Bearish Support Line

This chart is long term bullish (trading above the Bullish Support Line) and short term bullish (current signal is a double top buy signal that occurred at 304 on 3/12/99). Friday's action was down - 4.62 points or - 1.53%. It also closed within 10% of its high low range added to the low - - and therefore has an 85% chance of a lower low tomorrow. If the DJUA were to break through the Bullish Support Line and give a double bottom sell signal at 294 then the chart would once again turn bearish. The most important point of this chart is its top of 322 on 10/07/98. It leads the DJIA in tops and bottoms.

I've been bond averse since the Dow Jones 20 Bond Average reversed down on 2/4/99. I posted about this chart on Message 7842134. The current chart looks like this:

107.00                                          X   X
106.08                                          X O B O
106.06                                          X O X O
106.04                                          A O X C
106.02                                          X O   2
106.00  2                                       X     O < DBS
105.08  X O                                     X     O    
105.06  X O                                     9     O
105.04  X O                                 X   X     O
105.02  1 O                                 1 O 7     O 
105.00  X O                                 X O X     O
104.08  C 3                                 C 4 X     O
104.06  X O                             X   B O       O
104.04  X O                             X O A         O
104.02  B O                             X O X         O
104.00  X O                 X           X 8 X
103.08  A O < High Pole     X O X       X O X
103.06  X O                 X O X O 2   7 9
103.04  X O                 X C X O X O X
103.02  X 4                 B O   1 X O X   
103.00  X O                 X     O   3 X
102.08  9 O                 A         O X
102.06  X O X           X   X         O X < Low Pole
102.04  X O X O         X O X         O 6
102.02  X O X O         X O X         O X
102.00    O   5   DTB > 8 O X         4 X
101.08        O X   7   X O X         O 5
101.06        O X O X O X 9 X         O X
101.04        O X O X O X O           O X
101.02        O   6   O X             O
101.00                O
100.08
        9                         9         9         9
        6                         7         8         9

A low pole buy signal would occur at 105.8

It will be interesting to see if the current world situation causes a flight to quality - which would of course cause bond prices to rise and interest rates to decline if of sufficient magnitude. If not, my WAG is rates will climb back up a bit more.

Take care,

Eric


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