Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : George Gilder - Forbes ASAP -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Sheldon who wrote (1107)	3/29/1999 10:56:00 AM
From: Bill Fischofer	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 5853

Re: Reading Yes, I've read that book (among many others) and have subscribed to GTR for over two years. I believe George is a true visionary and have stated on more than one occasion that he publishes the only newsletter worth paying for, but like most folks he's far from infallible. Like many George has a giant blind spot when it comes to companies like MSFT, INTC, and CSCO. Read Speaking of George Gilder in which predictions of MSFT's imminent "topping out" are to be found. I believe a $60 billion market cap was regarded as absurdly high (MSFT is now closing in on a $500 billion market cap with little evidence of "topping" to be found). GTR ignores INTC and instead champions NSM despite the obvious fact that INTC has been the better investment for many years and that Andy Grove is one of Clayton Christensen's biggest fans. And CSCO's absence from GTR has been a puzzlement for quite some time given that some 80% of internet traffic flows through their equipment and John Chambers has said that CSCO's paranoia makes INTC look laid back. (The other conspicuous-by-its-absence company is EMC. It is axiomatic that as telecosm-induced data grows exponentially so does the need to store and manage it, even if GTR is silent on this subject.) The problem with all the focus on "disruption" is that everyone knows about it. These superbly managed companies are very much aware of all of these considerations (I'm sure Gates, Chambers, and Grove read each issue of GTR) and have near-infinite financial and technical resources at their disposal as well as the determination to do whatever it takes to maintain their leadership. It seems to me that those waiting for upstarts to catch these giants unawares are in for a very long wait. The problem is that the 'PC' is not a static target--it continues to undergo rapid evolution in response to underlying technology changes (many of which we can credit George for indentifying and popularizing). So in ten years I expect 'PCs' to be as mobile and chatty as any "smart cellphone" enthusiast could wish--and I expect they will be powered by INTC chips and run MSFT software and communicate over a CSCO-run internet. This is not to say that other companies will not be fabulously successful but to point out that this is not a zero-sum game and that todays market leaders will not be going away as a precondition for others to thrive. It is the market itself which is undergoing exponential growth and there is "room for all" at the table.

To: Robert Sheldon who wrote (1107)	3/30/1999 2:17:00 PM
From: moat	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 5853

I have the book by Christensen (Innovator's Dilemma), and every time I pick it up I get bored with it (and I am someone who is not bored reading Warren Buffett's annual reports). I really don't understand what the big deal is about this (another) business book that everyone is so crazy about. Yes, because of new technologies (or new ways of doing things) the established incumbent, because of their laziness and/or baggage, could be overthrown by the new (technology or company) if they don't pay attention (or even when they do). This seems like common sense, it happends over and over again in business. I really don't understand what is the new message offered by the book. Could someone please help me and summarize for me the main points of the book? What is really new here? What am I missing? Please help. > Bill, > You need to read "The Innovator's Dilemma: When New Technologies > Cause Great Firms to Fail" by Clayton M. Christensen and all > of George's archives to understand what George is speaking > about. It is not as simple as you believe.