Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (9370)	3/29/1999 7:57:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

INDEX UPDATE ======================================= We keep on hearing over and over that the deteriorating A/D is mow being discounted by many bullish analysts, based on the fact that it has been this way for so long(so far 11 months). I have heard from different sources that a deteriorating A/D line could last up to 16 months before a strong correction. Also I noticed per the P/E curve chart(previous post) that once the P/E curve peaked it could take up to 2 years before the market corrects. And history shows that the market has always corrected when such happens. Heres my questiion - then why are the bulls still using the deteriorating A/D as a bullish arguement. If the deteriorating A/D last beyond 16 months, then the bulls have an argument that this may be a new paradigm, but untill that happens, those type of comments have no statistical/logical substance. Remember, Im talking about mathematical probability - if it never happened before in history, then there better be a darn good arguement to support the belief of negating history - alot better arguement than its been so long(as long as it doesnt exceed 16 months). On various threads, we also notice how both the BULLs and BEARs have taunted each other. These tauntings, of course vary from being subtle to strong. I kindly request that such be toned down. We have money in the market and these tauntings can be hurtful to some. I at times also have cynical comments, but they are aimed at the analysts not the individual on SI. My cynicism is based on the fact that these analysts are getting paid, and in many cases they only give partial truths not the whole truth(IE: MUTUAL FUND inflows, etc.) I am not saying that we cant go higher, nor am I promoting a BK. but what I am trying to say is to be very cautious on the long side. There are still stocks, although a smaller & smaller number, which are still moving up, for the good/nimble stock picker. I also want to state, from my own personal experience, of all the investors/brokers I know, the only ones playing the short-side are those on SI, so there really are not that many right now, which is also substantiated by the PUT:CALL ratio. Just wanted to express some personal views. seeya

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (9370)	3/29/1999 8:17:00 AM
From: Vitas	Respond to of 99985

David, the Lindsay rule appears to be more complex than the basic rules suggest. Since you went to the Favors seminar, please plaster in the basic rules and let's see if we can figure it out. Part of the rule requires that the net a-d figure on the first peak be under a certain figure. Is that based on the current plurality or what the plurality was when Lindsay first suggested the rule? Vitas

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (9370)	4/6/1999 8:22:00 PM
From: Vitas	Respond to of 99985

"The Lindsay Puzzle" --------------------------------------------- DA RULES ______________________ From Favors' 4/28/98 letter: " Our Lindsay A-D Indicator gave a Sell Signal on April 21. This indicator is based on a comparison of the Dow closings with the net advances,that is the advances for the day minus declines. When the Dow registers 3 higher closes,each in new high ground for the move,while the net advances show 3 lower peaks a Sell Signal is given. The Dow must first rally to new high ground for the rally(not necessarily new all time highs),then pullback. The Dow will then rally even higher but on the second high the net advances for the day are less than the net advances at the first peak. The Dow will then pullback again. After that second peak the Dow must decline again. After that decline the Dow will then rally to a 3rd higher peak. However on that 3rd peak the net advances for the day are even lower than the second peak. That pattern generates the Sell Signal. On April 14 the Dow closed at 9109.46.That day there were 796 net advances,or advances minus declines. The Dow reached a high of 9159.03 on April 15,and then pulled back to a low of 9076.57 on April 16.The Dow then rallied to a new high of 9167.50 on April 17.On that day there were 584 net advances. So while the Dow rallied to new highs the net advances were below the 796 level seen on April 14.That was the second peak.The Dow then fell to 9141.84 on April 20. The Dow then rose to a 3rd new closing high of 9184.94 on April 21.However on April 21 there were only 200 net advances for the day.There you have the 3 higher peaks in the Dow on 3 lower peaks in the net advances. The Sell Signal was given on April 21. This indicator does not give sell signals often,and when it does they can be important." ______________________________________________ The example Favors gives in his TA article (TASC) is as follows: 5-11-90 Dow NH at 2801, nad +943 5-29-90 Dow NH at 2870, nad +673 6- 4-90 Dow NH at 2935, nad +628 giving the initial sell signal. Then a repeat sell at: 7-12-90 Dow NH at 2969, nad at +442 Two days trading days later on 7-16-90 Dow closed at 2999.75. Then a wee bit of a decline. Favors also adds "Finally, for the signal to be truly valid via this technique the DJIA should reach a new hourly high or low the same day as the new closing high or low on each of the three peaks at a top or two troughs for a bottom. By this we mean new hourly and closing highs for that swing, not necessarily new bull or bear market highs or lows." "this technique has been very accurate at catching short-term tops or bottoms and when combined with other tools can greatly increase the accuracy of your market timing." __________________________________________ One of the questions is, whether there is an under 1000 net a-d requirement, and whether that rule applies today given the much greater number of issues traded. Another is which readings on Dow new highs actually count as part of the three readings. You will see in the data for 1990 and 1998 that some subsequent new highs did not count as part of the rule. ____________________________________________ It's your call. All are invited to decipher "The Lindsay Puzzle" Data to follow

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (9370)	4/6/1999 8:26:00 PM
From: Vitas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Data for "The Lindsay Puzzle"; 05/01/90 2687.39 2651.35 2668.92 149000 141 05/02/90 2697.30 2659.01 2689.64 141600 252 05/03/90 2716.22 2682.88 2696.17 145600 344 05/04/90 2718.92 2682.43 2710.36 140600 555 05/07/90 2739.19 2698.87 2721.62 133000 372 05/08/90 2739.41 2710.36 2733.56 144200 163 05/09/90 2745.50 2710.14 2732.88 152200 27 05/10/90 2755.63 2716.44 2738.51 158500 246 05/11/90 2810.36 2743.02 2801.58 234000 943 x 05/14/90 2857.87 2793.75 2821.53 225400 507 ? 05/15/90 2840.74 2798.15 2822.45 165700 -202 ? 05/16/90 2841.44 2800.23 2819.68 159800 -113 05/17/90 2856.25 2811.57 2831.71 164800 183 ? 05/18/90 2838.43 2804.63 2819.91 162500 17 05/21/90 2859.72 2802.08 2844.68 166300 459 ? 05/22/90 2877.13 2828.51 2852.23 203400 127 ? 05/23/90 2869.07 2824.95 2856.26 172200 16 ? 05/24/90 2878.08 2828.04 2855.55 155100 -66 05/25/90 2856.50 2806.69 2820.92 120200 -404 05/29/90 2876.19 2812.62 2870.49 137400 673 x 05/30/90 2908.21 2853.89 2878.56 199500 112 05/31/90 2900.62 2854.84 2876.66 165600 119 06/01/90 2919.90 2868.69 2900.97 189000 399 06/04/90 2943.69 2883.98 2935.19 177700 628 x 06/05/90 2956.55 2911.89 2925.00 206500 -39 06/06/90 2936.65 2891.99 2911.65 165400 -216 06/07/90 2930.58 2880.34 2897.33 163400 -214 06/08/90 2908.50 2850.73 2862.38 142800 -552 06/11/90 2901.98 2852.97 2892.57 121800 355 06/12/90 2947.52 2877.97 2933.42 158600 458 06/13/90 2956.93 2910.15 2929.70 162300 -64 06/14/90 2943.56 2902.97 2928.22 134500 -357 06/15/90 2947.77 2902.72 2935.89 206000 -224 ? 06/18/90 2930.45 2877.48 2882.18 133500 -877 06/19/90 2907.92 2866.58 2893.56 134700 78 06/20/90 2914.60 2868.81 2895.30 136200 -109 06/21/90 2916.58 2870.05 2901.73 138500 78 06/22/90 2931.93 2848.02 2857.18 170300 -286 06/25/90 2882.18 2835.15 2845.05 130200 -553 06/26/90 2882.92 2832.67 2842.33 143600 -46 06/27/90 2878.96 2821.53 2862.13 146400 254 06/28/90 2896.04 2850.50 2878.71 138100 352 06/29/90 2901.98 2865.84 2880.69 145800 371 07/02/90 2908.66 2869.80 2899.26 133300 31 07/03/90 2925.74 2891.09 2911.63 135900 184 07/05/90 2906.44 2863.61 2879.21 129500 -661 07/06/90 2919.80 2867.57 2904.95 114000 314 07/09/90 2927.97 2890.84 2914.11 121000 91 07/10/90 2928.22 2882.18 2890.84 152700 -440 07/11/90 2942.33 2890.10 2932.67 162800 465 07/12/90 2980.69 2917.82 2969.80 211200 442 x 07/13/90 3012.38 2956.68 2980.20 218400 335 07/16/90 3017.08 2971.78 2999.75 155500 190 07/17/90 3024.26 2970.05 2999.75 184200 -234 07/18/90 3009.65 2963.61 2981.68 171400 -547 07/19/90 3006.19 2948.27 2993.81 163600 -237 07/20/90 3019.31 2953.71 2961.14 179400 -327 07/23/90 2961.39 2833.17 2904.70 212300 -1203 07/24/90 2939.60 2866.83 2922.52 182700 -2 07/25/90 2946.53 2896.78 2930.94 162800 312 07/26/90 2945.79 2888.12 2920.79 165800 -77 07/27/90 2938.37 2877.72 2898.51 149000 -400 07/30/90 2922.52 2861.14 2917.33 146500 -75 07/31/90 2940.10 2878.47 2905.20 175300 86 04/01/98 8883.51 8749.24 8868.32 673610 502 04/02/98 9025.26 8829.21 8986.64 669166 565 04/03/98 9085.79 8896.22 8983.41 649110 95 04/06/98 9170.74 8958.41 9033.23 623060 -409 04/07/98 9072.34 8862.34 8956.50 664121 -1211 04/08/98 9023.51 8821.73 8891.48 612007 -412 04/09/98 9062.12 8891.48 8994.86 546430 769 04/13/98 9107.21 8870.31 9012.30 563908 -425 04/14/98 9177.96 8971.45 9110.20 611420 796 x 04/15/98 9249.95 9017.53 9162.27 677289 159 04/16/98 9204.12 8978.92 9076.57 695380 -993 04/17/98 9213.58 9010.06 9167.50 662109 584 x 04/20/98 9245.22 9027.25 9141.84 595190 -200 04/21/98 9250.20 9051.41 9184.94 674058 200 x 04/22/98 9287.32 9083.80 9176.72 702800 -144 04/23/98 9269.88 9061.88 9143.33 787948 -1304 04/24/98 9206.36 8983.65 9064.62 750734 -1178 04/27/98 9026.25 8796.08 8917.64 685001 -2531 04/28/98 9051.16 8828.71 8898.96 677751 665 04/29/98 9036.47 8857.85 8951.52 638093 901 04/30/98 9169.99 8970.95 9063.37 829943 1614 05/01/98 9211.84 9015.54 9147.07 692953 700 05/04/98 9311.98 9134.86 9192.66 679869 113 05/05/98 9251.95 9062.37 9147.57 689472 -669 05/06/98 9223.80 9017.28 9054.65 724873 -697 05/07/98 9102.98 8914.90 8976.68 706576 -905 05/08/98 9143.09 8951.27 9055.15 668603 684 03/01/99 9355.21 9222.63 9324.78 809000 -187 03/02/99 9421.22 9268.00 9297.61 797100 -122 03/03/99 9337.00 9211.23 9275.88 746400 -332 03/04/99 9480.71 9275.72 9467.40 898800 527 03/05/99 9738.79 9467.67 9736.08 972100 1152 ?????? 03/08/99 9764.80 9674.33 9727.61 785400 -259 03/09/99 9798.93 9669.89 9693.76 966200 -307 03/10/99 9776.17 9675.72 9772.84 900400 324 03/11/99 9935.46 9769.96 9897.44 910800 492 x 03/12/99 9958.77 9861.92 9876.35 977600 -154 03/15/99 9970.15 9862.48 9958.77 731400 116 ??? 03/16/99 10001.78 9926.58 9930.47 746700 -364 03/17/99 9960.71 9859.15 9879.41 756000 -247 03/18/99 10001.51 9845.83 9997.62 834600 186 ??? 03/19/99 10085.31 9899.90 9903.50 920600 -644 03/22/99 9934.63 9874.97 9890.51 663100 -503 03/23/99 9891.06 9632.71 9671.83 817000 -1679 03/24/99 9703.19 9625.21 9666.84 765800 86 03/25/99 9841.94 9664.90 9836.39 784100 849 03/26/99 9853.32 9747.31 9822.24 695400 -259 03/29/99 10040.36 9821.61 10006.78 749700 714 xx 1st? 03/30/99 10003.84 9874.41 9913.26 733300 -432 03/31/99 10002.34 9781.45 9786.16 929200 -230 04/01/99 9840.00 9765.63 9832.51 707800 64 04/05/99 10023.15 9836.12 10007.33 700800 391 xx 2nd?