To: Richard L. Williams who wrote (30802 ) 3/29/1999 7:38:00 AM From: long-gone Respond to of 116791
<<I have a larger point to make. Trading is about getting tomorrow right. A good way to do that is to not get it altogether wrong. If you extrapolate a trend too far for too long you risk making the biggest mistake a trader will make - you risk being stubborn. The irony of $800 gold is not lost on me, either. Yeah, maybe it could happen, so I keep it on my inventory of possibilities. But do I adhere to this outcome as the only and ultimate outcome in the face of persistent new lows in spite of plenty of things that are supposed to support gold (inflation, war, strong economic growth, etc)? Of course not! You work with a thesis and bear down when it is confirmed and back off when it is contradicted by the fact that matters - price. This is why I am so dumfounded by the goldbug. How many refutations of a thesis does it take before they catch on?>> Yes, one should not risk becoming a "perma bear", "perma bull", or "perma gold-bug". There are chances in here for a good trade, now & again. There are also changes in the mining industry which have made (at least one) more miner move from the Red to the black. Aslo, as most of the miners also produce something else, if the other products move back up andgold "just returns to the norm(300-330)" Profit potential for the miners could be massive! gold may be a relic, but as long as it is needed & or wanted, there may be a great pay-day as the world believes it is "forever dead". I'm waiting for the day I see the words "Gold Dead forever" on the cover of Time or Newsweek. The bounce alone will put me on easy street. Also, remember most Bull markets start with only "An occasional trading opportunity"!