To: wily who wrote (2741 ) 3/29/1999 5:32:00 AM From: Mani1 Respond to of 3645
Wily Re << Have we been missing something here?>> I don't think its anything new or something we have been missing. IBM potential entry embedded DRAM market has been a drag NMGC for some time. IBM is among the leaders in process technology and they are trying to use that in their advantage. 0.15 micron manufacturing is still a good two years off at the earliest. The migration to 0.18 is just starting as 0.25 is still the state of the art and most ASIC's are still being manufactures using 0.35. Combination of copper and 0.15 provides some potentially blazing speed compare to today's performance but it will not happen for a while. IBM is targeting the overall embedded DRAM market as there is no secret that it is exploding. According to the link you provided,ibm.com "In a recent report, Dataquest Inc. estimated that ASICs containing embedded DRAM represented a $450 million business in 1998, growing to $7.5 billion by 2002." This is the reason that IBM is interested, and they are trying to leverage their process technology to their advantage. Of course NeoMagic is a "fabless" company so they do rely on a third party process technology. Considering that ASIC's in general have always trailed the DRAM and the CPU market as far as requiring the latest state of the art process technology, and also considering that there are other company's with good process technology willing to serve as a third party fab (Motorola being a notable one), I do not believe that NeoMagic will suffer from not having the best technology available. The name of the game in today's electronic industry is "bandwidth". It is the reason behind embedded DRAM (Neo Magic's graphic chips being one of the many examples in the ASIC sector) and on the die cache in the CPU (P-III and AMD K6-III) which is the same concept. Considering a huge future potential market, and NeoMagic excellent execution so far and their current evaluations, NMGC truly represent a very intriguing investment opportunity. I realize that bullish arguments are made for every stock including the priciest of them all, but NMGC is truly a "Diamond in the rough". Regards, Mani