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Microcap & Penny Stocks : Globalstar Telecommunications Limited GSAT -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Goodboy who wrote (3626)	3/29/1999 11:19:00 AM
From: Jim Parkinson	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 29987

I have taken the liberty of copying a post from the aol board dealing with the demand question. Rather thought provoking. I am looking forward to the results of Valueman's conversations with AirTouch and other service providers. <<What can affect G* is landbased wireless, falling roaming rates, etc. Still there will be huge areas in the US, Canada, coastal areas that are not covered by land based wireless. Not to mention overseas. >> This is my personal "rule of thumb" as to what the future telecom picture is going to look like. The world picture in 5 years: 90% of all revenue$ associated with voice, data, video etc will move via fiber, ie GBLX, ATT et al. (primarily in the developed world) 90% or the rest will move via wireless or microwave cell phones connected to fiber: Qcom et al (China, Russia, India, Mideast etc) The last remaining 1% only will communicate via satellite. The build out of wireless and fiber infrastructure will have reduced world demand for satellites, particularly in the developed world by more than half in the next 5 years. I don't think that Mr Schwartz, or anybody else for that matter, ever expected fiber or cellular to build out as fast as it has just in the last year. No one expected the kind of money to be made available for such an enterprise. GBLX is moving at an incredible rate, and the qualcomm/ericson deal frees them up to move even faster into China and Russia and elsewhere. Much of the predicted demand for satellite service will have to be recalibrated soon, and I think the financial institutions are waiting for newer, more realistic estimates before committing themselves to Loral/G. Estimates for predicted demand for satellite phones were often based on an assumption that satellite phones would remain the only available means of communication in many cities. This may have been true a year ago, but certainly not now. Indian, African, Russian private entrepreneurs are all going to look at the GBLX model and realize that they too can do what GBLX has done. Those that build their systems will look like national heroes, and building such systems will take the place of such prestigious projects as building up the army, unusable modern architecture, road that go nowhere. Building out an indigenous fibre and wireless communications systems will be seen as a way to secure political control. This is not to say that an American based global satellite system will be stopped or be allowed to languish. 1% may not sound like much but it may remain the primary and essential form of voice and data communication in those parts of the southern hemisphere where a fibre or even a robust wireless infrastructure cannot or will not be built. Satellites will be essential if Africa, South America, and the Pacific regions are not allowed to fall off the communications map. It is in everyone's political and economic interest to bring these counties into greater contact with each other and the rest of the world. The alternative is a kind of informational isolation that will breed social instability. Satellites may be a more expensive service because of the costs of maintaining such a system, but it will be absolutely necessary. I think G will realize in the next generation of launches that their revenues from that last 1% will be coming primarily from the Southern hemisphere. And, therefore, launching a full global system with a complete complement of satellites covering every inch of the globe every few years will not be necessary. Strategically located satellites in fewer orbits will be enough to transmit signals to the nearest fibre connection which will move closer as the years go by. So I think the costs of maintaining and replacing the system will drop considerably.