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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (9380)	3/29/1999 10:26:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

INDEX UPDATE ======================================== Right now with the DOW up 80 and NAZ up 28, my short-term techicals are now in the upper mid-range for the DOW/SPX/OEX. Surprisingly for the NAZ my short-term technicals have just entered the overbought region and is approaching CLASS SELL status quickly. With the DOW/SPX/OEX in the upper mid range, that imples that the potential upside is 2-3 days which would still be in line with the end of month rally. Previously, I have mentioned the resistance lines of 9750 & 9900. 9900 was just reached and exceeded slightly. Will 9900 hold or will it go higher and make another attempt at 10000, I DONT KNOW, since anything can happen when my technicals are in the mid-range. At the same time we should not discount the statistical issue of the end of month rally, which implies futher upside. Well, I had to leave for 20 minutes and when I got back the DOW is up 126 and the NAZ up 40. gggggggggggggggggggg So now I have to redo my short-term technicals and the NAZ just became a borderline CLASS 2 SELL and the DOW/SPX/OEX is still right now about to enter the overbought region. Boy things change fast now adays. Seeya

To: HairBall who wrote (9380)	3/30/1999 10:02:00 AM
From: dclapp	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

LG and all, Speaking of "market direction," here's the only "sure-fire" method that I've found to make money. It's brainlessly simple, and I'd invite comments on it. Here it is: on days when a Dow component opens late because of good or bad corporate news (HWP a while back on their "splitting the company," KO today on an earnings warning), go long or short DIA before the pop-up or down when the stock opens and is reflected in DIA. Caveats: -- other stocks may/will buffer the effect of that single stock -- you need to buy/short before the stock in question opens -- because the DIA percent swing may be small, you need to really put some financial muscle into the long/short position. -- a conservative follow-up is to close the position soon after the stock opens and is reflected in DIA. If ya "feel lucky" ("Do you, punk?" :-) you can hold to see if the market continues to track in your desired direction. Fine-tuning is possible, i.e. watching to see if unopened stock will move in the same direction as the rest of the market, etc. You won't retire in Maui using this, but it's good for a few somaleans here and there. doug