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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gersh Avery who wrote (9385)	3/29/1999 11:42:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Gersh, >>> DAY 3 <<<. gggggggggg The RUT just became a weak CLASS 1 SELL. The DOW,SPX,OEX, just became weak CLASS 2 SELLs, and the NAZ already a CLASS 2 SELL. Per my short-term system, these CLASS 2 SELLs could morph into a CLASS 1 SELL, tomorrow if the market continues up. So the window for a short-term reversal could be as early as today into WED's highs. We do have to keep in mind that we are at the end of the month rally. Gersh, well could this peak be the last one before the stronger selling starts. Per my previous posts, I was expecting an intermediate top by the end of MAR/early APRIL, so this rally is arriving right in line. As a strategy, I still suggest that the best way to benefit is to play JULY PUTs on weaker stocks. Not to say that everything wont pull back, but I prefer to PUT stocks which have already shown technical weakness. Seeya

To: Gersh Avery who wrote (9385)	3/29/1999 11:53:00 AM
From: Daflye	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Now I'm easing back to the short side. I sold out my OEX long way too early last week, DRAT. Some day soon I will have the patience to ride out a good trade to fruition. At least my entry points are getting better. Message 8521024 Again everything seems ok, safer to go long, that's why I'm sizing up put candidates. Message 8497531 Donald, I agree with your thesis of being long the indexes and shorting individual stocks, but there is a time, inevitably when the "generals" fall. I think that time is close, today is part of that sweet spot I think started on friday. Message 8547634 VIX.X is breaking 24, options are probably as close to fairly priced as we will see. Time to starting adding poots. I think. Again just speculating aloud, fishing for a response, heh heh heh. Oh yeah, I can't get past a 3 yr chart of the OEX, every good correction has brought it down to a trendline, on a weekly chart it is roughly equal to it's 50 EMA, currently in the 565-570 range. Also IBDs mutual fund composite index usually makes it to the 200dma, last month it came close but reversed, as of todays issue the index appears to have hit resistance at the 50dma and turned back down. Judging by the narrowness of todays rally I'd be surprised if it is able to break to the upside. TRIN trending down,(NYSE) A/D pos 2x1, up vol 5x down vol, new lows still outnumbering new highs 52 to 31. Again what to do, what to do. heh heh heh. D