To: AltLar who wrote (41161 ) 3/29/1999 2:55:00 PM From: SliderOnTheBlack Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 95453
How high do we go ? Sell/Buy ? One question holds the entire answer - Will OPEC comply (70%+) to the new cuts ? ... if they do; (as I believe they will) - then the traders say we go to $18+ Oil and that supports OSX 100+ - see link below. If the "Street" says that they will takeOil to $18, if OPEC complies with cuts - then I would be basing my trading and buying/selling based on my expectations of OPEC Compliance and the first reports. It WILL be a given, that we will sell off on the Q1 earnings reports and into the first OPEC #'s - bank on that & act accordingly. We aren't too far away from Q1 reporting season - I will be looking for opportunities to take profits prior to the earnings releases - and will also look to re-buy the inevitable dips from the profit taking. I want to beat the crowd on the way out - and then on the way back in; as I believe OPEC will adhere strongly to cuts - especially in the first few months. That's how I'll be playing this fwiw...cbs.marketwatch.com << "If they do cut production, oil is worth a lot more than this -- $18 or $19," Kleinman said. For now, Kleinman expects a trading range of about $15.25 to $16.50. >> Some stocks like SII, HAL, SLB don't look real cheap to me, but lots of stocks have a long way to run before they are anywhere near fully/fairly valued in a $16-18 Crude enviroment imho. This is a great time to be watching the technicals - the Street will be; when the stochastics, macd, Bollinger bands - or whatever indicators are your personal choice; show retracement - take profits; for now - it's hard not to let these dogs have some leash... IMHO; FGI still has $4-6 in short covering alone - unrealized. O/T - LarryC; I never really followed MIND that closely; I would think that with the pullback in overall Cap Ex spending that MIND may see some seismic companies postpone new equipment leases and purchases. But, then again - with their strong leasing business; some small companies may go the lease route as activity picks up instead of purchasing equipment - so they could see a nice move by Q3-4 and buying cheap now may be prudent. I just don't follow it...no real opinion.