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Technology Stocks : George Gilder - Forbes ASAP -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bwtidal who wrote (1114)	3/29/1999 2:49:00 PM
From: Bill Fischofer	Respond to of 5853

Re: Disruptive technologies Actually WindowsCE is one of the more "disruptive" technologies to have been introduced in quite a while. Dismissed as a "toy" OS for handhelds, it will overtake Windows98 in the next few years as the dominant "consumer" OS. Keep an eye on it. Unless some JavaOS variant takes off real quick, it's what your "PC" circa 2003 will be running. As someone who worked for IBM for many years, I could write volumes on their PC stumbles, but I'll restrain myself. The key is that in all the "failure" cases that Christensen and others identify, the key point is an establish company wishing to "protect" its high-margin turf against a "low-margin" threat. MSFT, INTC, and CSCO are acutely aware of this phenomenon and are determined not to fall prey to it. Obviously we won't know if they are successful because if they are still thriving ten years out there will always be another "threat" on the horizon which folks will be able to point to, but these companies have already demonstrated a nimbleness that standard business theory would suggest could not have happened. True, MSFT misjudged the internet in 1995 but then literally turned on a dime to recover. The same is happening with INTC and the sub-$1K PC. And CSCO has done the same with switching vs. routing. It is precisely because nobody has a crystal ball that investors want companies that are able to react swiftly to market changes.

To: bwtidal who wrote (1114)	3/29/1999 3:02:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5853

Intel, Microsoft, Cisco can be as paranoid as they like, but that doesn't mean they can prevent the barbarian hordes from Q! over-running them. MSFT can form a joint venture with Q! [WirelessKnowledge] but that doesn't stop the tsunami, it just means they catch a bit of the wave too. Sure, horseshoes, and those companies will stay in business and maybe increase their business, but paranoia and money doesn't necessarily get possession of the brains which matter. If Irwin and co don't want to sell their brains, all the paranoia in the world still leaves them up the creek without a paddle. In the days of the dominance hierarchies, the paranoiacs would simply poison Q! soup or send a gang of swordsmen around, but that's not allowed now. Ericy did their best to stop it, but now they are trying to ride the tsunami too. So did the EU, but they all resigned. The Mainframe PC and $ill Gates' mantra ['a PC on every desk and in every home'] is out of date - companies WILL run their businesses on cellphones which will be fractalized into a swarm of different, small, devices. A4 sized notebook computers will dominate and they'll have Q! Wireless Web [WWeb] connections to the internet. Q! is the core of The New Paradigm. They own, backed by the USA which is still considered a substantial force in the world, the intellectual property necessary for the implementation of the wireless world. They will license many to use it [and have done] but they still own it. Microsoft, Intel, Compaq, Cisco are heading for marginalization. They will operate at the periphery of the Q! core. Interestingly, and supporting GG's concept, the core will be at the periphery = the handheld device and the base station. MSFT will supply Windows CE, Intel is making Q! chips, Compaq will make the Notebook/A4 devices, Cisco will carry the bits. Funny how the periphery is now the core. Brainspace at the periphery is what counts. The brain is the core. Q! is close to the core. The rest is the margin. Gee, I hope this doesn't sound over the top! I suppose it's just semantics. Maurice Anita [TM] in every hand, and the WWeb in every ear, on every desk, in every car, in every HDTV, in every 3D wearable movie theatre [that cute little Sony thing you wear like glasses and see a big image out in front like a movie theatre].