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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (41185)	3/29/1999 7:52:00 PM
From: KC650	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

>>>Many sleepless nights, but I was absolutely sure I was doing the right thing.<<< Glad to hear someone else say that <g> Back in October......a rich old guy I know and I were talking stocks.......he said to me....." I'll give you ONE tip......buy ESV". I checked it out and bought it.....and it just went up and down....the same way for weeks. So, I sold for a nice profit and started trading it ( it had such a pretty and predictable trading pattern). I figured that I'd do this until I got "stuck in a bad trade. I sat there for about 4 months watching my losses grow bigger each day....but, it didn't bother me much because I knew it was as good as "money in the bank at a huge interest rate" <g>..just a waiting game. Now, I'm "back in the money"....but, I won't dare sell......too much happening and I might not ever get back in at this price. I will keep a close eye on it though......don't want dead money ever again.....would rather buy twice as much at a better price. Tina

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (41185)	3/30/1999 12:54:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

Lingerfelt; you get the ''Big Brass Ones'' award... << I have been at near max margin levels from December to about a week ago.>> Jon Cave also, looks to have a nice little portfolio built up - good job Jon... Marginwise; I have turned it on & off. This is the ultimate double edged sword. And imho; anyone who has not lived & breathed this sector allmost exclusively for 6 months is playing with fire - fair warning.... I was full throttle for the Nov - Dec tax loss selling and covered into the January ''pop''. I covered early when the stochastics first turned. I caught the first 50-60% of the move, but was on margin and took profits at the first hint of a turn. The conservative - in early & out early approach had served me well since the initial Sept blowoff. I am in a little cash here - buying non-marginable sub $5 micro-cap E&P's and keeping some $ for 1 -day blowoffs like we just had in CLB which came out of the blue - and caught me totally by surprise as a great buying opp. I am continually taking profits on big 1-2 day moves in individual stocks here, but simultaneously rotating into laggards and staying pretty much fully invested. Using ultra tight stops to protect gains in my leaders. I let the laggards back & fill as their downside is less volatile imho. I will not for example, ride GIFI back down to $10, let alone $9, or $8 ... I will be decreasing my leverage here shortly; preparing to sell just prior to the earnings releases and then to turn it on again buying any substantial dips as the street sells into the releases... We could possibly even see OSX 85ish before the peak of earnings season which is scarry... OSX 72-5ish suits me just fine here. But timingwise - we are set up for a decent possibility of surging to OSX 85ish if we get a strong DOW rally post 10,000. I sense that there is a large group of Institutions & Individuals who are not in yet - we could get an entirelly new fresh wave of cash coming in yet this week, or early next week. Profit taking is due - but, no sense not letting this play out and keeping tight stops and one eye on the intial turn in the technical indicators on individual stocks. OSX 85ish ? Heady stuff ? yes . Given the actual dayrates and Rig utilizations - we are close in many issues to being ''fairly'' valued. What amazes me however, is that the ''Street'' doesn't get it . They pour cash into SLB, HAL & BHI here, when there are much, much better bang for the buck options... They must have liquidity however; and I guess that they are willing to give up some upside potential for the liquidity.If the Street keeps moving cash into SLB HAL & BHI - then we keep running. There just is no reason to not let these stocks run here as the next profit taking pause I see is the Q1 earnings release season. We could have a great week to 2 week move here. I would bank on the Street selling into these releases. There will NOT be strong year over year, or quarter over quarter results. Can't be for the drillers and most service companies. E&P's may have caught some commodity increases in the tail end of the quarter - so a few of them may have some quarter over last quarter upside. The backlog companies like FGI, UFAB & GIFI should hit the numbers and we'll see how the backlogs are doing. All in all; this is a prudent profit taking point going forward. I am 110% sure the Street will take some chips off the table from this run - have to plan those trades and trade the plan (BDism)... The Street has tipped its hand in advance by their prior actions; I'd exit early and seize any disproportionate blow offs as buying opps. Also; the first OPEC reporting period from the point of the new cuts, will also be a Street profit taking situation imho. Beyond these 2 virtually pre-determined scenario's it is the price of Oil and currently merger mania as the drivers.... MRO & OXY may be acquisition targets soon... Still lots of cheap E&P's that most definitely will have stronger Q2 earnings, Integrateds like ARC (not cheap any more !) & MRO, maybe KMG (looking cheap here) , or OXY are good rotation stocks, liquid, Institutionally supported and buyout possibilities. PS - GaryB - hey, we deserve a brief spurt of giddyness...<VBG>. Good Luck