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To: Crazy Canuck who wrote (14545)	3/29/1999 8:20:00 PM
From: mike machi	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 37507

~Where do we go from here?? ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Monday March 29, 7:16 pm Eastern Time Analyst says Dow ascent looks like a 1950s redux NEW YORK, March 29 (Reuters) - The Dow's dizzying four-year climb to 10,000 is part of the ''peacetime dividend'' after the fall of the Berlin Wall, with the gains mimicking a similar rally after World War II, according to Ralph Acampora, chief technical analyst at Prudential Securities. The influential bull market strategist was one of the first to publicly forecast the Dow Jones industrial average would top 10,000. The 30-stock blue chip average finally vaulted over the hurdle on Monday, closing at 10,006.78, up 184.54. Acampora said today's bull market looks very similar to the one charging Wall Street in the 1950's, as the U.S. economy transformed in the wake of the war that devastated parts of the globe, taking a heavy toll in Europe and Asia. ''We have seen a market like this -- 50 years ago,'' said Acampora, speaking on a conference call from his vacation in the Caribbean. ''Between 1949 and 1961, the Dow went up, are you ready for this? 550 percent. And in those 12 years, ... it never had a 20 percent decline,'' he said. The gains brought the Dow up from just about 175 in 1962 all the way up to nearly 750 points in 1961. The 1950's go-go days for Wall Street came in the wake of the Japanese surrender, the start of the Marshall plan and the formation of NATO. New technology was also sweeping America then, with televisions going into mass production and the invention of the transistor. Today's rally has similar features. ''This was fueled by a peacetime dividend,'' he said, with stocks and the economy now gaining after the end of the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union. Again the U.S. is benefiting from new technology, with the ubiquitous use of computers revolutionizing productivity and traditional ways of commerce. Acampora used to frequently compare the current stock market boom to one that started in the 1960's, but he said the current bull market, which he says is four years, four months old, has outgrown that model. ''For the last four years, (my analysis) has been based on the market's performance between 1962 and 1966. That was the last time we had low inflation and low interest rates in the United States. That was a three and half year run and the Dow went up 85 percent,'' he said. But with the Dow now more than double where it was in December 1994, he said the comparison was ''no longer valid''. Today's bull market also shares a weakness of its 1950s doppelganger -- bad breadth. Many stock market analysts have become skeptical that the rally can last, noting that it has become so narrow, it may be in need of serious correction. ''Guess what? (In the 1950s), the breadth, the leadership was very, very narrow throughout most of that advance, and I think that's what we're going to be witnessing,'' he said. Acampora says he expects the Dow to reach 11,500 through the rest of 1999. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Related News Categories: US Market News