To: porcupine --''''> who wrote (1501 ) 4/1/1999 3:49:00 PM From: porcupine --''''> Respond to of 1722
US Rides Into Second Quarter On Strong Econ Data By Svea Herbst-Bayliss NEW YORK (Reuters) - Basking in eight years of robust growth, the U.S. economy rode into the second quarter of 1999 on another wave of strong economic statistics, confirming that its winning streak is far from over. American consumers, already instrumental in helping the economy grow 3.9 percent last year, showed no signs of closing their purses in early 1999 and are expected to keep factories humming this year. ''There are not a whole lot of worrying signs right now,'' said Morgan Stanley Dean Witter economist David Greenlaw, adding that while economists had been expecting the red-hot economy to slow for some time ''that is just not happening.'' Consumer spending climbed 0.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $6.039 trillion in February after a 0.4 percent January rise. Incomes also increased but by a smaller proportion, rising 0.5 percent in February. At the same time, broad-based private and public demand for buildings and highways helped construction spending jump 2.2 percent in February, marking the fourth consecutive rise. And the long ailing manufacturing sector showed more signs of a turnaround as the nation's purchasing managers said their much-watched NAPM index hit 54.3 in March, outpacing February's 52.4 reading and Wall Street's forecasts for a 51.7 number. ''These numbers are good, in fact some are off the charts,'' jubilated Barclays Capital senior economist Henry Willmore, suggesting Asia's economic recovery is overshadowing Europe's slowdown and helping buoy the U.S. economy at the same time. Thursday's numbers confirm a recent trend and several private sector economists, including those at Chase Securities, have raised their forecasts for first quarter growth. ''We revised GDP for the first quarter to 3 percent from 2.5 percent,'' Jim Glassman, senior economist at Chase said. At the same time, the economy seems to be defying standard economic theories which suggest that strong growth usually leads to a jump in prices and new inflationary pressures. ''The inflationary pressures we have seem have come from the rise in oil prices, but overall the inflation environment is still very tame,'' Willmore said. But financial markets, ever fearful of price increases, already endured a small shock Wednesday when traders argued a sharp price increase in a regional manufacturing survey would translate into similar inflationary pressures on the national level. Thursday however, traders showed more mixed reaction to the new data. Treasuries slipped slightly, stocks dropped off their day's highs and the dollar drifted sideways. Trading was thin, however, because of this week's religious holidays. Realizing that Wall Street often panics at the sight of certain numbers, economists said Washington policy makers, who left rates steady Tuesday, had a more global view and were not yet worried about current developments. Looking ahead however, economists said the Federal Reserve would at some point need to shift gears after last year's three quick cuts in interest rates, and raise rates to protect the economy from overheating, ''We are drifting slowly but surely to some Fed tightening later this year,'' Greenlaw said. Economists however agreed the Fed would not move in the immediate future and saw little to suggest an end to economic growth.