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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (9433)	3/29/1999 8:38:00 PM
From: Les H	Respond to of 99985

Ord Oracle on Marketweb.com BOTTOM LINE ON THE MARKET. March 29, 1999 We though at first the June S&P's was drawing a continuation pattern to the downside called a "Falling Three Method". However this pattern was negated on today's rally. What is probably the case now is a rally back to the highs near the 1335 area on the June S&P's. On the March 25 commentary, we said "There is a possibility the June S&P's could run back up to test the Weekly candlestick pattern (Shooting Star) which was drawn last week at the high." We have found a lot of bearish "Shooting Star" candlestick pattern's highs are re-tested. This one appears will be no exception. There are other bearish signs in the market. Another is the intraday ARMS index. We have found when the intraday ARMS index stays near .50 or lower the entire day the market is heading into an exhaustion move to the upside. Today the intraday ARMS index did not go above .48. From the March 3 low to the March 19 high the June S&P's pulled back a 61.8% retracement of that rally. When a market retraces 61.8% of a previous rally than the most one could hope for on the next rally is a re-test of the previous high, which is the 1337 area. Therefore the Fibonacci relationships are bearish. Addition confirmation of a high would be if the market rallies back to the high of June 19 on lighter volume. The Volume on June 19 was 911 million shares. Re-test of a previous high on lighter volume is bearish. We will look for a bearish candle at the highs, also. We are looking for a re-test of highs to go short.