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Strategies & Market Trends : Jim's Nasdaq100 Special as a basket. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Battaglia who wrote (243)	3/30/1999 10:21:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 2103

Hi Jim; I like XLE as it's weighted towards the larger oil companies, and how far it will run I don't know. I broke my own rules and bought RD Feb. 19th and sold March 19th. I also bought ESM at the same time but it didn't do near as good. --------------------------- Oil is getting it's kick from production cuts, to me taht spells trouble down the road however it can take some time before the price fixing comes home to bite us on the rear. And when it does inflation may already be with us. I see the hopefuls chasing the oil service and drilling stocks as they looked so over sold, but I have worked in that sector half my life, and I know that a rally based on production cuts will in time melt down. My gut feeling is that after the shorts cover reality will come back home, if u play oil stay with the BIG integrated boys I feel they will go on up, but the longer term risk factor is too much for me. -------------------- Oil needs ASIA to recover to maintain both price and production, a rally just based on one can only cause economic problems latter. In a way the problems it will cause might have a silver lining as we have been killing the ECO system with cheap oil. Its almost like one hand washes the other. If this rally wasn't based on production cuts I'd be more bullish, about it. ------------------------- Most people don't realize how higher oil prices get permeated into every thing we use and buy, the pundits play it down and get away with that because the linkage is rather far out. The pudits just talk of prices at the gas pumps, and that's about as far as people look, but gas pump prices are only a small part of the energy picture. While artificial price increases in oil effect us like interest rates going way up, they don't do it right away, it's hard for me to understand how the market can be so short sighted. Most of ASIA is very depended on oil, so back in the pot they go, just as they seemed to be crawling out. XLE will likely run some more but I'm not going to jump on it, I socked away a good gain on RD and will now pass. Right now I'm mostly cash & have my eye on PPT looking for a bottom, I'm really more conservative than I sound. Jim