To: Captain James T. Kirk who wrote (41210 ) 3/30/1999 10:23:00 AM From: JungleInvestor Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
Nice article on oil bullishness. Says that strong demand could cause backwardation which discourages companies from storing oil - this should help API inventory numbers in future. Mentions Iraq reduced April production - wonder if their lack of reservoir management is catching up with them? FOCUS-Oil holds ground on products, OPEC cuts March 30, 1999 6:04 AM EST LONDON, March 30 (Reuters) - Oil prices held steady on Tuesday on strength in U.S. gasoline markets and expectations that OPEC's supply cuts will hit home fully in Asia in May. Benchmark North Sea Brent was trading four cents higher at $14.62 a barrel at 1057 GMT. That is well clear of its 1998 average of $13.34 and sharply above its $11.45 average for 1999 to date. Markets continued to draw strength from strong U.S. West Coast oil products prices following two refinery explosions that have kept supply scarce in the key market. "American markets performed very well last night and you get the sense that this sentiment will continue," said a London oil broker, referring to bullish feeling embracing both U.S. oil and equity markets. The U.S. Dow Jones industrial average ended above the 10,000 mark for the first time ever on Monday, with oil stocks playing a key role in the rise. Oil stocks rose on news that BP Amoco Plc is in talks to buy Atlantic Richfield Co (NYSE: ARC) in a possible $25 billion deal. A fundamental driver for the oil price remains the effect of an explosion at a Chevron Corp (NYSE: CHV) complex on Thursday, the latest in a series of refinery problems in the San Francisco area that has left three of five refineries operating under capacity. The impact of those outages has been all the greater for their timing, coinciding with last week's agreement among major producers to cut supply and drain huge amounts of stored oil. A consulting firm said the 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd) package by OPEC and non-member producers will be deep enough to rid western crude markets of protracted oversupply and will hit home fully when Asian refiners return from maintenance in May. "When rising Pacific Basin demand meets strong Atlantic Basin demand, markets could tighten enough to see some additional backwardation," said a report by Washington's Petroleum Finance Company. Backwardation, a price structure where forward prices are cheaper than prompt, discourages companies from storing oil. In the latest news about implementation of the package, a trader said China International United Petrochemical Corp had been notified that its term supplies of Oman would be cut 8.2 percent in May. He also said that Kuwait term supplies would be cut 7.25 percent from April. Late last week, Chinese traders said they thought Kuwait and Oman would cut supplies six to seven percent. Markets may have also found a prop from a reduction of around 250,000 bpd in Iraq's total planned April crude loadings by from March's heavy levels. Iraq's April reductions are unconnected to the OPEC, non-OPEC supply restraint deal. Prices in dollars per barrel: Mar 30 Mar 29 (1040 GMT) (Close) IPE May Brent $14.61 $14.58 NYMEX May light crude $16.41 $16.44 REUTERS