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Technology Stocks : Energy Conversion Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: WALT REISCH who wrote (3448)	3/30/1999 8:59:00 AM
From: fred whitridge	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 8393

Tom/Walt: Buried in Walt's post #3447 are the MSRP's for two flavors of DVD media $39.95 for the 5.2gig and $24.95 for the smaller one. If one assumes a 100% markup from the factory to the retailer that gives us $20 and $12.50 against which to apply our royalty percentage. So what's a likely percentage? What's a third party "expert" guess on the numbers of disks to be sold? I'm thinking it might be time to do a revenue and earnings model complete with footnotes to hand to James Myers (are you still alive?), First Albany, the great Ruder Finn, and any others who may be looking. In broad brush it might go like this: CD-RW back royalties: $10mm disks x $10/disk x 2% royalty = $2mm CD-RW current royalties: 16.8mm disks x $7 x 2% = $2.35mm 2 Packs a day at Kettering @ 1000/kwh = $15mm rev x 40% Ovonic ownership= $6mm 1000 satellites x 10kw x $35/watt x 5% share = $17.5 million Tyler meets Andy Grove= $25mm You get the picture. Anybody hot on a particular area and want to give me some properly footnoted, third party "expert" blessed, multiyear forecast either on the thread or privately and I may try to craft them into a proper Wall St. earnings model. I notice that Bob quoted a third party in answering a question on DVD royalties, and the letter to shareholders quoted Paul Maycock whose excellent PV News I have referenced here. Maybe we need to put up a straw man for people to throw eggs at?