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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (5985)	3/30/1999 11:15:00 AM
From: Lee	Respond to of 9256

To put it another way, rarely do fluctuations above and below the mean become flat lines in the first, or second, or third attempt at stability. More likely you get longer waves with less deviation from the mean. Although in this instance we may have less deviations and shorter waves. Cheers, Lee

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (5985)	3/30/1999 9:56:00 PM
From: Stitch	Respond to of 9256

Robert, <<Isn't this precisely what we want to happen? - Inventory buildup resulting in production cutbacks before they get too large. The disk-drive industry of old would have gone right on producing at high levels until a glut killed everyone.>> It may be too early to celebrate a new level of discipline and control over excess inventory but I think your scenario of an "inventory echo" is correct. I would not expect the DD sector at large to zero in on demand quite so efficiently as to track it perfectly in the first minor slowdown cycle after the appearance of recovery. Competitive zeal and systems still strained by the so-called BTO model simply argue against it. But I do expect to see most companies reporting an improved efficiency. Best, Stitch I still think we need a shake out. We need a big one to go away.